Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported a 36% year-over-year jump in April sales from its Shanghai factory and filed a new Roadster trademark, but Polymarket bettors still aren’t buying the bull case.

Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory produced 79,478 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in April, up 35.96% year-over-year. The figure counts cars shipped from the factory to dealers for sale within mainland China and for export to overseas markets.

“Tesla is still a strong contender in China’s EV sector, and monthly sales of more than 70,000 units is impressive,” said Eric Han, a senior manager at Shanghai consultancy Suolei. “But it may face difficulties in sustaining its growth momentum in the coming months when brand new models developed by Chinese carmakers attract more Chinese buyers.”

Chinese rivals BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY), Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng Inc (NYSE:XPEV) showcased dozens of new models at the recent Auto China show in Beijing.

Tesla recently filed a new trademark for a bespoke triangular Roadster badge, the latest of three Roadster filings this year, according to Electrek.

The Roadster is Tesla’s long-promised second-generation electric supercar, first shown as a prototype in 2017 with a $200,000 starting price and a $250,000 Founders Series tier. Production has been pushed back at least eight times since.

On the Q1 earnings call, Musk said Tesla “may be able to debut that in a month or so” but tempered expectations. “I don’t think it moves the needle massively from a revenue standpoint, but it is very cool.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tried to cancel his $45,000 Roadster reservation on X last October, prompting Musk to fire back: “You stole a nonprofit.” Musk’s lawsuit against Altman over OpenAI’s for-profit conversion is set to go to trial next year.

Despite the catalysts, prediction market traders are pricing in a modest Tesla recovery, not a blowout.

On Polymarket’s Q2 deliveries market, traders give a combined 58% probability to deliveries landing between 375,000 and 450,000 vehicles, a bounce from Q1’s 358,023, but well short of a record.

The longer-term narrative trades are more skeptical. A California Robotaxi launch by June 30 carries 11% odds. An Optimus public sale by the same date sits at 2%.

In Polymarket’s largest company by market cap contract, Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) holds 60% to finish 2026 at the top. Tesla sits at 1%, with SpaceX at 2%.

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman maintains a $145 price target on TSLA, the most bearish on the Street. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is at the other extreme with $600, calling 2026 a “monster year” for FSD and Cybercab. Consensus sits near $410.

Image: Shutterstock