Bitcoin To Hit New All-Time High In 2026? Crypto Prediction Market Isn't So Sure Anymore

Cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reaching new highs this year.

Polymarket Traders Bet Heavily

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns only a 19% chance of Bitcoin bettering its all-time high of $126,198—set in October—at any point in 2026. The odds at the beginning of the year were 39%.

Similarly, chances of BTC hitting all-time highs by Sept. 30 stood at 9%, down from 32% at the start of 2026.

Over $7 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if any BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance on the specified date has a final "High" price greater than $126.198.

Diverging Projections On BTC Highs

Predictions surrounding Bitcoin's price movements have surged even as the asset grapples with a prolonged bear market

Last week, real estate billionaire Grant Cardone projected Bitcoin to hit $189,425 by year-end. Previously, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes lowered the year-end target to $125,000.

Conversely, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said conditions are not right for Bitcoin to mount a recovery above $100,000.

Several bullish Bitcoin price targets have been revised downward lately. For example, Citigroup lowered its 12-month forecast to $112,000, while Standard Chartered reduced its year-end projection from $150,000 to $100,000.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $80,772.44, down 0.06% over the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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