Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down to $79,000 after the copper-to-gold ratio broke above its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2020, a signal that has historically preceded major Bitcoin bull runs.

The 2020 Signal Returns

The copper-to-gold ratio currently stands at 0.00142, with copper trading at $6.65 per pound and gold near $4,700 per ounce. 

The ratio has climbed above its 200-day moving average for the first meaningful time since September 2020.

Previous surges in the ratio during 2013, 2017, and 2021 aligned with major gains in Bitcoin prices. 

The ratio has risen 25% from its lows and historically leads Bitcoin by weeks to months, reinforcing the view that the current crypto rally may still be in its early stages.

Correlation Beginning To Strengthen

The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the copper-to-gold ratio currently sits at -0.11, though it has rebounded sharply from -1.00. 

This suggests the two assets are not yet positively correlated, but the relationship is beginning to strengthen.

During Bitcoin’s strongest bull runs, the correlation has moved toward or above 1.0. The current negative reading largely reflects the earlier divergence phase, when the ratio was falling and Bitcoin declined faster than copper. 

As the ratio recovers, that relationship has historically converged alongside improving market conditions.

Why The Ratio Matters

The copper-to-gold ratio is widely viewed as a gauge of economic momentum and investor risk appetite. 

Copper is closely tied to industrial demand and tends to outperform during periods of economic expansion, while gold is traditionally associated with defensive positioning.

A rising ratio signals a more risk-on macro environment. Historically, the copper-to-gold ratio has led Bitcoin by several weeks to months, suggesting the current move may still be in its early stages.

Channel Intact Despite Pullback

Bitcoin pulled back today and is retesting the ascending channel’s middle trendline, which is exactly where it should find support during a healthy correction.

The ascending channel from April’s $61,000 lows is the dominant structure. Supertrend at $75,617 and SAR at $78,796 both remain bullish despite today’s red candle.

The channel’s lower boundary sits around $77,500–$78,000, the absolute must-hold zone for bulls. 

Support sits at $78,796, then $77,500 channel floor. Resistance sits at $82,000–$83,000 channel top with invalidation on a daily close below $77,500.

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