Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains structurally bullish after reclaiming a key monthly average, according to a prominent technical analyst.

Market Structure Matters Most

In a detailed X post on May 13, pseudonymous analyst Scient said the monthly 50 moving average (MA) holding as support was the first major trigger that flipped his macro-outlook bullish, prompting spot Bitcoin accumulation around $68,000 before turning fully bullish near $72,000.

Bitcoin's reaction around the monthly 50MA has historically defined broader market structure across cycles:

  • 2018: BTC held the monthly 50MA and continued higher after retesting it during the 2020 crash.
  • 2022: Bitcoin lost the monthly 50MA after the all-time high cycle, leading to extended bear market conditions.
  • 2026: BTC once again defended the monthly 50MA and reclaimed support after sweeping liquidity below key lows.

Scient argued that many market participants are overcomplicating Bitcoin analysis by relying too heavily on fractals and narrative-driven comparisons instead of focusing on core structure and liquidity behavior.

2022 Comparison May Be Misleading

The analyst pushed back against traders overlaying the current market structure with the 2022 breakdown pattern.

He noted that in 2022, Bitcoin never swept the major swing low before bouncing, meaning the move higher mainly acted as a liquidity grab before continuation lower.

The current setup, he said, looks different because Bitcoin already swept the major swing low around $74,000, reclaimed the monthly 50MA and moved back above macro support.

What's Next

Scient said long-term investors should focus less on short-term volatility and more on whether Bitcoin continues holding above the broader macro downtrend breakout.

He concluded, "You don't panic over every red candle. You don't try to short every correction."

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