The Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act on Thursday in a 15-9 vote. Polymarket traders responded by pricing the bill becoming law in 2026 at just 68%.

That is up 10 points on the day, but well short of the February peak of 80% and a long way from the certainty the headline vote tally suggests. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), one of the lead Republican negotiators, has warned that missing the current legislative window could push the next viable crypto market structure attempt to 2030.

Three obstacles explain the gap between the committee win and the prediction market’s hedge.

The Floor Math

The full Senate needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democrats have to cross over. Thursday’s committee vote started that fight from a base of two.

Senators Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) broke ranks to vote yes alongside all 13 Republicans. Alsobrooks said she would not back the bill on the floor unless remaining issues are addressed. Gallego said his final vote is not guaranteed.

For comparison, last year’s GENIUS Act stablecoin bill cleared the Senate 68-30 with 18 Democrats crossing over. That is the bipartisan margin CLARITY supporters need to replicate.

The Ethics Standoff

The conflict-of-interest section that would limit government officials from profiting from crypto is the single biggest variable on Democratic floor support. It sits outside the Banking Committee’s jurisdiction and has to be added to the bill at a later stage.

Democrats will not move a final bill without ethics language tied to the Trump family’s crypto interests, including World Liberty Financial and the $TRUMP memecoin. The White House has said it will not tolerate a bill that singles out the president. Those positions remain irreconcilable as of Thursday.

Digital Chamber chief executive Cody Carbone told reporters the ethics deal will likely be completed before the floor vote. He put the realistic window at August.

The Calendar

Congress breaks for Memorial Day recess on May 21, and the White House is targeting a July 4 signing. If August slips, Lummis has warned the next viable attempt may not come until 2030.

Kalshi traders are pricing the same risks, with the regulated platform’s CLARITY contract trading near 72% today.

Market Reaction

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) jumped nearly 10% to a three-month high near $222. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) gained over 6%. Bitcoin almost reached $82,000 before falling slightly.

Citi analysts tie a $143,000 Bitcoin base case for December 2026 to CLARITY Act passage.

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