Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) got rejected by the 200-day moving average at $82,400 on Thursday, mirroring the exact pattern from the 2022 bear market when a similar bounce failed at the same technical level.

Same Rejection Pattern As 2022 Bear Market

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin rallied 37% from $60,000 in February to $82,000 before hitting resistance at the 200-day MA. 

In 2022, Bitcoin posted a 43% rally between March and May before rejecting at the identical technical level.

“We have had a really good rally since the lows of February, but still what I’m telling here is that it’s a bear market rally,” Moreno stated. “We actually hit that resistance which is really a key resistance during bear markets,” he added.

The 200-day moving average at $82,400 has proven to be a critical ceiling. Bitcoin touched it but failed to close above, retracing to $79,000.

High Unrealized Profits Signal Selling Pressure

Unrealized profit margins for traders reached levels comparable to March 2022, right before that bear market rally failed. 

Realized profit-taking spiked in early May, with traders locking in gains equivalent to 14,000 Bitcoin in a single day, the highest since December.

“We have high unrealized profits but now they’re starting to actually take profits,” Moreno explained. “That’s an indication of actual selling after this rally.”

U.S. Spot Demand Collapsed At $80,000

The Coinbase premium flipped negative as Bitcoin approached $80,000, signaling weakening U.S. demand at higher prices. 

The rally from $60,000 to $82,000 was driven almost entirely by speculative demand through perpetual futures, not spot accumulation.

“This rally was mostly driven by speculative activity,” Moreno noted. “It’s not real spot demand. That’s more typical in bear markets because spot demand is contracting,” he added.

Spot demand has been contracting throughout 2026, though at a slower pace recently. In contrast, sustainable bull market rallies see both spot and speculative demand growing simultaneously.

Trader Realized Price Points To $70K Support

CryptoQuant’s trader realized price now sits at $70,000, down from $86,000 in mid-March as sellers distributed at lower prices. This metric historically acts as key support during corrections.

“That’s the first support I would look at if the correction progresses,” Moreno stated as prices tend to hover around that level.

If Bitcoin holds $70,000 and doesn’t break below, it could signal the bear market bottom is forming. Breaking below would invalidate that scenario and open the door to deeper losses.

Bitcoin is trading at $79,000, down from the $82,400 rejection zone but still above the critical $70,000 support level identified by on-chain metrics.

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