The S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday as cooling oil prices and Treasury yields boosted investor sentiment, and Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will build on those gains at Thursday's open.
The S&P 500 rose 1.08% to close at 7,432.97 on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.54%. The May 21 Polymarket contract implied a 66% probability that the index would open higher on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday's rally was fueled by growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East could move closer to a resolution.
President Donald Trump told reporters that the administration was in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran, helping send oil prices sharply lower. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.66%, while Brent crude dropped 5.63%.
Treasury yields also retreated after spooking investors earlier in the week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 9 basis points, while the 30-year yield dropped over 6 basis points after recently hitting its highest level since 2007.
Investors also digested minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, which showed most policymakers expected interest-rate hikes could become necessary if inflation remains elevated because of the Middle East conflict.
The Bull Case
Markets received another boost from Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) quarterly results, with the chipmaker beating Wall Street expectations and raising guidance.
While Nvidia shares traded modestly lower in after-hours trading as investors debated whether the results justified lofty expectations, the company's earnings reinforced confidence in the artificial intelligence investment theme that has powered much of the market's gains.
Investors will also monitor earnings from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) before the opening bell, alongside economic data on jobless claims, housing and manufacturing activity.
S&P 500 futures were up just 0.09% early Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,369.19, above Tuesday's close of 7,353.61, meaning the May 20 Polymarket bet resolved "Up." The contract recorded traded volumes of approximately $63,587 before settling.
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