Expectations that SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could all reach public markets within months has reignited investor appetite for initial public offerings.
Bank of America's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, went searching for a historical precedent — and found one hidden within the 10 largest IPOs in market history.
In his latest "The Flow Show" note, Hartnett analyzed not the IPO stocks themselves, but the performance of each company's home-market equity index over the following three, six, nine and 12 months after the listing.
The question Hartnett is really asking is whether a giant listing tells you anything about what stocks do next.
The answer is that it depends entirely on which giant you pick.
10 Largest IPOs Ever — Home-Index Performance After Listing
| Company | Index Tracked | Date | Size | Index Forward Return (%): +3M | Index Forward Return (%): 6M | Index Forward Return (%): 9M | Index Forward Return (%): 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | Tadawul | Dec ’19 | $26bn | -5% | -8% | 0% | +10% |
| Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) | Shanghai Composite | Sep ’14 | $22bn | +32% | +51% | +119% | +38% |
| SoftBank | Nikkei | Dec ’18 | $21bn | -1% | -2% | 0% | +10% |
| NTT | Nikkei | Oct ’98 | $18bn | -2% | +17% | +30% | +23% |
| Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) | S&P 500 | Mar ’08 | $18bn | +2% | -6% | -34% | -43% |
| AIA Group | Hang Seng | Oct ’10 | $18bn | +3% | -1% | -8% | -22% |
| Enel | Euro Stoxx 50 | Nov ’99 | $17bn | +22% | +36% | +29% | +26% |
| “Facebook” Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) | S&P 500 | May ’12 | $16bn | +8% | +5% | +16% | +25% |
| General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) | S&P 500 | Nov ’10 | $16bn | +13% | +13% | 0% | +7% |
| ICBC | Shanghai Composite | Oct ’06 | $14bn | +54% | +102% | +118% | +237% |
Alibaba And ICBC Were The “Rocket Fuel”
Two listings stand apart.
When Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. debuted in September 2014 and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China listed in October 2006, the Shanghai Composite and Chinese equities surged in the months that followed.
The Shanghai Composite climbed 119% in the nine months following Alibaba’s listing, by BofA’s measure, and a remarkable 237% in the 12 months after ICBC came to market.
Hartnett labels these the “rocket fuel” IPOs.
The read-through is not that the listings caused the rallies. It is that both deals landed at the start of powerful bull markets in Chinese equities, and a record-breaking IPO was a symptom of the optimism, not its source.
NTT And Enel Came Before The Storm
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. was listed in October 1998, and Enel SpA in November 1999.
Both were followed by solid index gains over the next year.
But Hartnett’s point is the timing. Both arrived roughly a year before a major bear market — the dot-com collapse that began in 2000.
The lesson is that a hot IPO market can run for another 12 months before the cycle turns.
The listing is an early warning, not an immediate one.
Visa And AIA Were The “Toppy” Signals
Then there are the listings that did mark a top. Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) priced in March 2008 and AIA Group Ltd. came to market in October 2010.
The S&P 500 was down 34% nine months after Visa’s debut and 43% lower at 12 months, as the global financial crisis tore through markets.
The Hang Seng was 22% lower a year after AIA listed.
Hartnett describes both as “toppy” IPOs — deals that arrived just as the music stopped.
And Some Listings Meant Nothing At All
The rest of the table is a shrug.
Saudi Aramco in December 2019, SoftBank Corp. in December 2018, Facebook — now Meta Platforms Inc. — in May 2012 and General Motors Co. in November 2010 produced no clear directional signal for their home indices.
For these four, the broad market drifted modestly higher or sideways.
A blockbuster IPO, in other words, is often just a blockbuster IPO.
What It Means For The Class Of 2026
The relevance is immediate. SpaceX filed its S-1 with regulators on May 20 and could launch its roadshow as soon as June, in what would be the largest listing in Wall Street history.
OpenAI is reportedly targeting a fourth-quarter debut and Anthropic an October listing, according to multiple reports.
History offers no clean verdict. The same record-sized listing has marked the start of a 200% rally and the start of a 40% collapse for a stock. What separated them was never the deal — it was the cycle the deal landed in.
For investors watching the AI listing wave, that is the question worth holding onto.
Photo: fadfebrian on Shutterstock.com
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