Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) could see a net benefit from higher gasoline prices in recent months when it reports third-quarter (Q3) results Thursday after the market close.
Here's a look at earnings expectations, analyst commentary, and key items to watch ahead of the report.
Costco Q3 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect the retail giant to report Q3 revenue of $69.42 billion, up from $63.2 billion a year earlier, according to Benzinga Pro. They also project earnings per share of $4.92, compared with $4.28 last year.
Costco has beaten revenue estimates in six straight quarters and eight of the last 10, while topping EPS estimates in four consecutive quarters and nine of the last 10 overall.
What Experts Are Saying
Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh maintained an Outperform rating on Costco ahead of the earnings report and raised the price target from $1,100 to $1,160.
The analyst said Costco's value proposition is too big to ignore. Parikh said strong value and fuel savings could improve the company's market share in the quarter.
Parikh also said there could be a special dividend or stock split announcement for Costco.
A report from JPMorgan said Costco is "up to 60% cheaper than traditional grocery," including cheaper prices than Walmart and Target on many items.
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods highlighted recent strong earnings from Costco peer BJ's Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) that could mean a strong quarter coming for Costco.
"They continued to see strength in membership growth and grocery traffic as consumers leaned into bulk buying and value-oriented shopping habits," Woods said of BJ's in a weekly newsletter.
While Costco could report strong earnings, Woods was cautious about the stock’s technicals.
"Shares are testing a major resistance level going back to early 2025."
Woods said that an optimistic report could see shares hit a gap above $1,050 and look towards a new higher leg of $1,200.
The market expert cautioned that there is support for Costco stock at the $960 level and "even better support" at the $870 level, suggesting further downside for the retailer on a weak report or weak investor reaction.
"Given the mixed retail results and its current technical levels it would be much more prudent to wait this one out."
Key Items to Watch
Costco peers BJ's and Sam's Club, which is owned by Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) have already reported quarterly results.
BJ's reported strong membership growth for Q1, with earnings per share and net sales beating estimates. The company also saw membership fee income increase by 9.9% year-over-year in the quarter.
A battle of income levels is showing at BJ's locations, with CEO Bob Eddy saying lower-income shoppers have spending pressure, middle-income customers have limited growth and high-income shoppers are pushing the spending gains.
Sam's Club had net sales of $23.4 billion in its first in Q1, up 6.1% year-over-year. Excluding fuel, the net sales were up 3.9% to $20.5 billion. Sam's Club had comparable sales growth of 3.9% in the quarter.
The retailer reported strong renewable rates and new membership counts.
These strong figures from Costco peers could point to a strong quarter.
Costco, Peers See Lift in Visits
Placer.ai data shows that Costco visits rose 6.6% in February, 4.4% in March, and 7.2% in April year-over-year. The third fiscal quarter will include March, April and parts of February and parts of May.
Placer.ai also showed that higher gas prices could be the reason that warehouse clubs are seeing visitor growth. Warehouse clubs offer discounts on gas for members.
Visits to gas stations of these brands began spiking in the first week of March. They remained elevated since. Here are the visitor growth figures on a year-over-year basis for the weeks of March:
- Week of March 2: BJ’s +13.7%, Costco +8.1%, Sam’s Club +10.1%
- Week of March 9: BJ’s +17.2%, Costco +11.4%, Sam’s Club +12.5%
- Week of March 16: BJ’s +16.7%, Costco +9.7%, Sam’s Club: +10.6%
- Week of March 23: BJ’s +15.3%, Costco +9.0%, Sam’s Club +12.3%
In April, visits to the warehouse clubs' gas stations remained elevated. All three brands saw growth of 16% or more for the week of April 13. The week of April 27 saw double-digit growth of all three warehouse clubs.
Increased trips to Costco gas stations could mean more visits to the warehouse building, new memberships and higher rates of renewed memberships.
Price Action
Costco shares were up 0.1% at last check, trading at around $1,003.69 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $844.06 to $1,096.50. The stock price is up 17.7% year-to-date in 2026.
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