Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 2% over the past 24 hours, falling below its bear market resistance band in what resembles previous midterm-year fakeouts, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.

Why Traders Are Watching This Level

In a podcast on Wednesdyay, Cowen said Bitcoin's move above the 20-week SMA near $74,000 and the 21-week EMA lacked the follow-through typically seen during true trend reversals.

Instead, the structure looks like prior midterm-year rallies that briefly pushed above key resistance before rolling over again.

"Bulls come out, dunk on the bears, and then the air gets let out," Cowen said while comparing the current setup to 2018 and 2022 market behavior.

The past bear market rallies often followed a familiar sequence of breaking above the bull market support band, then a rally toward the 200-day moving average and retest of the 21-week EMA. After a brief bounce, the downside trend resumes.

Cowen said Bitcoin appears to be repeating that same pattern again.

The analyst added that stronger bull cycles usually show aggressive continuation after reclaiming the support band. This rally, however, "barely had any follow-through."

Midterm-Year Pattern Still In Play?

Cowen said Bitcoin's structure currently resembles 2018 more closely than 2022, especially with expectations for potential weakness into June or July and another possible drop into September or October, which would mark the cycle bottom.

The 200-week moving average remains a major long-term level that could come into play later this year.

"The price is less important than the timing," Cowen said, arguing Bitcoin bear markets historically end through "time-based capitulation" rather than one final price collapse.

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is down 4.5% and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is down 3% over the past 24 hours.

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