The S&P 500 rose today after US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire and open formal talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Under the draft, the two sides would negotiate Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and regional security, and Iran would clear all mines from the strait within 30 days, according to Axios.

The proposed 60-day memorandum still needs President Donald Trump‘s signature and Tehran’s formal acceptance.

As negotiations progressed, US forces carried out fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street Buys It, Prediction Markets Don’t

The mood in equities stayed calm. The VIX touched 15.73, its lowest since January, while energy lagged a tech-led tape.

Prediction traders are not so relaxed about the deal itself.

Polymarket gives the odds of a deal this month at 17%, up from 10% yesterday. A deal by June 30 sits at 41%, and one before 2027 at 76%.

Why A Final Deal Is Still Far Off

The mechanics are already a sticking point. Any deal would require Iran to dilute or ship abroad its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, close to weapons grade, and Trump said Wednesday he “wouldn’t be comfortable” with Russia or China holding it.

At home, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) , Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Roger Wicker (R-MS) say the emerging terms look too favorable to Tehran and too close to the Obama-era pact Trump once scrapped. Trump insists he will not be rushed, calling Iran “negotiating on fumes.”

The Hormuz Curve And Oil Tickers

Polymarket puts Hormuz traffic returning to normal at 38% by the end of June, 59% by July and 83% by December, with $10.4 million traded on the June contract.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reversed earlier gains Thursday as Brent slid toward $94 from above $107 in mid-May, and the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) tracked the drop.

A signed extension could deepen the slide, though earlier signs of progress have collapsed within hours before.

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