Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has dropped roughly $10,000 in recent weeks, falling from around $83,000 to near $73,000 after rejecting almost exactly at its 200-day moving average.

Why BTC Looks Vulnerable

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on May 29 this rejection mirrors similar bear market setups in 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin rallied into the 200-DMA before rolling over again.

Cowen said Bitcoin remains inside its historical midterm-year "window of weakness," a period that has often pressured the asset during prior four-year cycles.

He noted that Bitcoin has typically formed lows during the first half of midterm years:

  • First major drop near the end of the post-halving year
  • February low
  • March or April higher low
  • Another weakness window into June
  • Possible relief rally in July or August
  • Final cycle low risk into September or October

June Becomes Key Timing Window

Cowen said Bitcoin may remain weak into mid-to-late June, when prior midterm years often produced another important low.

He also flagged the Bank of Japan's June meeting as a potential macro catalyst, noting that Bitcoin previously bottomed shortly after a BOJ rate hike in 2024.

"If this plays out like prior cycles, June would be a candidate month for another low to form," Cowen said.

That low could be either a higher low or a lower low, he added.

Why Traders Should Watch Q4

Cowen warned that even if Bitcoin bounces in July, that will not necessarily confirm the cycle bottom.

He said past midterm years often delivered summer rallies before another final drop into the September-October window.

The analyst added that traders should avoid panic selling if Bitcoin makes a fresh low in late June, since prior cycles produced sharp July relief rallies after similar weakness.

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