Two analysts read the same earnings report on the same day and reached conclusions $140 apart.
That is the current state of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) on Wall Street, and says almost everything about how the market is pricing AI software right now.
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On May 5, after Palantir posted its first-quarter results, RBC Capital reiterated an Underperform rating with a $90 price target.
Hours later, Wedbush’s Dan Ives reiterated an Outperform with a $230 target.
That $140 spread — more than 150% of the bear case target — is not a disagreement about the quarter. Both firms saw the same numbers.
It is a disagreement about what Palantir fundamentally is, and what it is worth.
According to Benzinga's data, the consensus rating is Buy, with an average target of $173.76 across 29 analysts — but that average masks the chaos underneath.
Citigroup and Rosenblatt both carry $225 targets. DA Davidson just cut to Neutral at $165. HSBC downgraded to Hold on May 1 with a $151 target. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley sit at Neutral, the “we genuinely don’t know” camp, and it is a crowded one.
The Bull Case
The bull case, championed most loudly by Ives — who has called Palantir the “Messi of AI” and expects it to join the trillion-dollar market-cap club — rests on the idea that Palantir’s AIP platform represents a uniquely defensible software layer.
Government contracts provide durable revenue. The commercial business is accelerating. No one else has built what Palantir has built.
The Bear Case
The bear case is simpler: Palantir stock trades at 161 times trailing earnings and 98 times forward estimates, per Benzinga Pro data.
At those multiples, the valuation prices in years of flawless execution, and any stumble in sentiment or growth — the kind that has hurt high-multiple software names before — could compress the multiple fast.
Bears also point to persistently high stock-based compensation as a drag on real profitability.
The $140 Question
The next real test comes with second-quarter earnings in August. Revenue growth trajectory and any update on AIP commercial contract momentum will either justify the premium or hand the skeptics their argument.
Until then, Wall Street’s $140 question has no answer.
PLTR Stock Price Activity: Palantir Technologies shares were up 6.67% at $152.90 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo: Samuel Boivin / Shutterstock
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