Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz has cut his personal odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year from roughly 90% to 60%, and he is blaming President Donald Trump for the slide.

Speaking on the “All Things Markets” podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz said the administration’s $1.776 billion taxpayer-funded settlement fund and Treasury’s newly unveiled $250 bill bearing the president’s face are making it harder for Senate Democrats to back the crypto market structure bill.

Why The Slush Fund And The $250 Bill Matter

Novogratz, who said he plans to travel to Washington this week to lobby Democratic senators directly, argued that political optics are doing more damage than the bill’s text.

The Department of Justice announced the $1.776 billion settlement fund in mid-May to compensate allies the administration says were wrongly prosecuted, drawing accusations of corruption from senior Democrats.

Days later, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a $250 commemorative bill mockup featuring Trump, pending congressional approval. Each move gives wavering Democrats fresh political cover to keep their distance.

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, but Republicans need at least seven Democratic crossover votes on the Senate floor to overcome a filibuster and send the bill to President Trump’s desk.

Jamie Dimon Attacks Coinbase Over The Same Bill

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon told Fox Business on Friday that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is “full of sh-t” and that the banks “will not accept” the current version of the bill.

At issue is a provision allowing crypto platforms to pay interest on dollar-pegged stablecoins. Banks argue that it effectively turns stablecoins into deposit-like products without traditional regulatory guardrails.

Dimon claimed the Coinbase CEO is spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Washington to push the legislation over the finish line. 

Polymarket Traders Are Pricing The Same Story

Prediction markets appear to agree with Novogratz.

Polymarket’s “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026” contract has been trading near 53%, down from a peak of 74% when the bill passed the Banking Committee, with roughly $1.1 million in volume.

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) sits at the center of Dimon’s broadside and remains the largest US-listed beneficiary of regulatory clarity. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) also has direct exposure through its crypto trading and tokenization push.

Novogratz’s downgrade suggests the path to 60 votes has narrowed since the May committee vote.

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