Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) tumbled as much as 15% intraday Thursday before closing down 12.59% after in-line AI guidance failed to clear sky-high Street expectations.
For long-term holders, history says panic is the wrong instinct.
Thursday’s slide stopped just short of a level that, historically, has been a gift. Going back through Broadcom’s entire trading record, the stock has closed down more than 15% in a single session three times — and every one turned into a generational entry point on a six-to-twelve-month view.
Broadcom’s Historical Daily Crashes Were Rare Moments
The first two struck during the March 2020 COVID meltdown.
On March 16, 2020, AVGO cratered 19.91%; two sessions later, on March 18, it dropped another 15.86%.
The third came on January 27, 2025, when the DeepSeek R1 shock triggered a 17.40% wipeout across AI hardware names including Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD).
The Buy-The-Dip Opportunity Was Staggering
What followed each crash was a violent recovery.
Across the three events, AVGO returned an average of 85.19% over the following six months and 132.02% over the following year — with a 100% win rate at both horizons.
Even the single worst outcome of the three still delivered 45.6% at six months and 64.64% at one year.
The catch is patience.
The DeepSeek crash kept bleeding for a quarter — AVGO was still down 2.14% a month later and 4.78% after three months, with a peak drawdown near 42% before it turned.
The COVID-era buyers, by contrast, were up double digits within weeks. The pattern is consistent on the long horizon, not the short one.
| DATE | CATALYST | 1-DAY MOVE | AVG Fwd Return: 1M | AVG Fwd Return: 3M | AVG Fwd Return: 6M | AVG Fwd Return: 1Y |
| Mar 16, 2020 | COVID crash | -19.91% | +37.70% | +65.65% | +95.67% | +154.92% |
| Mar 18, 2020 | COVID crash | -15.86% | +53.86% | +89.86% | +114.29% | +176.49% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | DeepSeek shock | -17.40% | -2.14% | -4.78% | +45.60% | +64.64% |
| Jun 04, 2026 | AI guide in-line | -12.59% | ||||
| Average | +29.80% | +50.24% | +85.19% | +132.02% |
Wall Street Analysts Support Buyers
On Thursday, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider reiterated a Buy and lifted his price target to $525 from $500, writing that he would be “aggressive buyers of the stock following a pullback.”
His thesis rests on Goldman’s forecast of roughly $133 billion in Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue for fiscal 2027 — comfortably above the company’s own reiterated target of $100 billion-plus, tied to about 10 gigawatts of datacenter deployments.
BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya went further, raising his price objective from $450 to $530 while reiterating Buy.
Arya pegged AI growth at roughly 180% year-over-year in FY26 and near 100% in FY27, and read management’s decision not to hike the fiscal-year 2027 AI target as “a sign of conservatism given ongoing supply constraints” rather than weakness.
He sees Broadcom’s earnings power reaching $30-plus per share by 2030, powered by new custom-silicon ramps at Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI and two additional accounts.
He also pushed back on the bear case that Alphabet could in-source its chip work away from Broadcom, arguing the five-year Google TPU agreement keeps Broadcom the program’s main design partner even as customers explore alternatives.
What It Means For Investors
Broadcom’s fundamentals did not break Thursday — expectations did.
Three times before, the market mistook a violent repricing for a broken story, and each time the patient buyer was rewarded, with one-year gains ranging from 65% to 176%.
With two of the Street’s most influential semiconductor analysts raising their targets straight into the selloff, this drop is shaping up to rhyme with those three.
Photo: Tada Images / Shutterstock
Login to comment