Elon Musk’s SpaceX is set to debut on the Nasdaq next week in what could be the largest IPO ever, and one of its co-lead underwriters projects the rocket maker’s revenue may hit $3.4 trillion by 2040.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts also see adjusted EBITDA topping $2.7 trillion by 2040, according to projections shared with top investors and reported by the Wall Street Journal today.

The forecasts come from the banks’ sell-side analysts, who operate separately from the dealmakers running the offering, the report said. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley hold the top two roles among 21 banks on the IPO.

Bank Forecasts Lean Heavily On AI Growth

SpaceX’s AI division, formed after the February merger with xAI, reported $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. Goldman projects that unit could contribute around $322 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley sees closer to $190 billion.

The optimism is anchored by a concrete deal. In March, SpaceX leased its Colossus 1 supercomputer, which houses 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, to Anthropic for $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, giving xAI a $15 billion annual revenue floor before Grok factors in.

The ‘Orbital Compute’ Pitch

The S-1 also outlines plans to launch orbital data centers by 2028, using the Starship heavy-lift system and the Starlink V3 laser mesh network.

Moving compute workloads into space could leverage constant solar power and natural radiative cooling to solve the energy and heat constraints throttling terrestrial data centers.

It is the sci-fi premium the banks are selling, repositioning SpaceX as an off-planet AI infrastructure play.

Kalshi gives a 25% chance of there being a Data Center in space by 2033.

NYU’s Damodaran Calls The AI Math ‘Fantasy’

Polymarket gives roughly 69% odds that SpaceX’s IPO closing market cap is over $2 trillion, with the company targeting a $1.77 trillion valuation at $135 per share.

NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran values SpaceX closer to $1.3 trillion in a post-prospectus analysis published yesterday, calling the prospectus’s $26 trillion AI total addressable market a fantasy and comparing it to inflated estimates from the Uber and Airbnb IPOs.

Damodaran cut his projected AI operating margin to 25% from 45%, citing competitive pressure from Anthropic, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and OpenAI.

With Musk retaining over 85% of voting control via dual-class shares, investors may have limited say if SpaceX doubles down on AI spending.

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