BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski sees more upside in CoreWeave Inc (NASDAQ:CRWV) than Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), assigning CoreWeave a $192 price forecast while rating Nebius Neutral with a $255 forecast.
• CoreWeave stock is showing notable weakness. Why is CRWV stock dropping?
CoreWeave: Execution Drives The Debate
Slowinski said investor discussions around CoreWeave focused on execution, management messaging and the company’s ability to deliver against guidance.
He said CoreWeave’s mixed delivery record has contributed to its underperformance versus Nebius and IREN Ltd (NASDAQ:IREN) over the past 12 months.
Slowinski said management’s explanation for a mechanical operating profit ramp in the second half of 2026 is logical.
However, investors still need to see the profitability inflection appear in reported results before gaining more confidence in the company’s unit economics.
He also said CoreWeave could better explain the long-term return profile of deployments backed by delayed draw term loans.
Slowinski said those leveraged structures should produce attractive equity-level internal rates of return, and GPU’s useful lives beyond six years could further improve returns, as later-year revenue carries less depreciation and interest expense.
Nebius: Strong Story, But Limited Upside
Slowinski said Nebius has drawn strong interest from European investors because it offers one of the few liquid ways to invest in AI infrastructure through a European-domiciled U.S.-listed company.
Slowinski said investors generally view Nebius as having a stronger story than CoreWeave, supported by its execution record, hyperscale infrastructure experience, cleaner balance sheet, and ClickHouse stake. Still, he said, BNP Paribas saw limited pushback on its Neutral rating after Nebius gained about 200% year to date.
He said Nebius is entering a more challenging growth phase, as its 2026 and 2027 outlook depends on bringing much larger GPU data-center sites online.
Slowinski said this will test whether Nebius’ engineering strengths can scale into large data-center clusters, creating more execution risk than before.
Token Optimization Could Pressure The Narrative
Slowinski said token optimization could become a near-term headwind for neocloud stocks if investors interpret lower token consumption as a setback for AI adoption.
Still, he said, BNP Paribas views this as a natural evolution in the sector as token demand broadens from frontier AI labs to enterprise customers.
He noted that SAP CEO Christian Klein said companies are now tying AI usage to productivity outcomes.
At the same time, Bloomberg reported that Uber Technologies, Inc (NYSE:UBER) capped employee spending on coding-tool tokens after exceeding its annual token budget in just four months.
Slowinski said Nebius may be more exposed to any temporary pullback in token consumption because roughly 50% of current revenue may come from spot rates or short-term contracts.
However, he said the impact may prove temporary because most of the new annual recurring revenue expected to ramp by year-end will come from longer-term contracts with Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT). At the same time, CoreWeave already generates 98% of ARR from longer-term contracts.
Investors Still Need A Valuation Framework
Slowinski said investors remain highly interested in neoclouds, but many still need more education on business models, unit economics and competitive positioning.
He said investors continue to ask how to value these companies, and BNP Paribas believes simple EV-to-sales multiples are not enough.
BNP Paribas prefers a steady-state economics framework, while some investors are also using free-cash-flow net present value tied to contracted capacity or scenario analysis around GPU rental rates, contract duration, and GPU useful life.
CRWV, NBIS Price Action: CoreWeave shares were down 6.31% at $101.32 and Nebius Group shares were down 9.57% at $234.83 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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