Mike Novogratz says Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) may be flashing a market top signal with its record $80 billion stock sale, after the Google parent spent two decades returning cash to shareholders through buybacks.

The Galaxy Digital founder raised the warning on the All Things Markets podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, calling Alphabet “one of the great wealth creation vehicles ever” before pivoting to its new posture as a major equity issuer.

Novogratz argued that a company with two decades of disciplined buybacks suddenly issuing stock is a signal to take risk down, not add to it.

Alphabet announced the offering on June 1, reportedly the largest single equity raise in US corporate history.

The structure breaks into a $30 billion underwritten public offering, a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK), and a $40 billion at-the-market program slated to begin in the third quarter.

Alphabet noted in filings that roughly $30 billion of the ATM program is earmarked for an administrative change in how it covers employee equity vesting taxes, not direct AI infrastructure dilution. GOOGL still slipped about 4% on the news.

The Bigger Supply Wave Hitting Markets

Scaramucci built on the concern. He estimated $160 billion in incoming AI-related equity from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could drain liquidity from the rest of the market.

SpaceX is expected to begin trading on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, targeting a valuation of nearly $1.8 trillion in what would be the largest initial public offering in history.

That liquidity drain is being felt acutely in crypto, which Novogratz noted has lost its ‘sponsorship and narrative’ to AI.

With Bitcoin testing crucial $60,000 support, Novogratz joked that holders should be praying it holds: ‘If you’re a good Catholic, you’re saying two Hail Marys and an Our Father that 60 holds.”

What Polymarket Is Pricing

Polymarket‘s “US recession by end of 2026″ contract is trading near 18%, suggesting traders remain skeptical that the supply wave breaks the broader market. Novogratz himself said no recession is coming before year-end.

Polymarket’s “AI bubble burst by end of 2026″ market is pricing roughly 17% odds, with traders seeing limited risk of a deep correction in Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) or the broader semiconductor complex this year.

The massive divergence in wealth is creating a stark K-shaped economy, Novogratz warned. While 60% of America feels the squeeze of food and gas, high-end disposable wealth is hitting staggering extremes, evidenced by New York Knicks playoff tickets at Madison Square Garden commanding up to $150,000 on the floor as they face the Spurs.

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