While Biogen Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BIIB) base business is declining, it is entering a period of pipeline optionality, with eight Phase III readouts through 2029, according to Needham.
The Biogen Analyst: Analyst Ami Fadia upgraded the rating from Hold to Buy, while establishing a price target of $255.
The Biogen Thesis: The company's five growth products and two from the Apellis deal closed in May could "more than offset the base business declining in the mid-single digits" and drive a five-year revenue CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of around 2%, Fadia said in the upgrade note.
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She noted that Biogen's key growth drivers are:
- The improving Leqembi trajectory
- Stabilization of Spinraza post HD (high dose) approval in March
- Mid-to-high teens growth in Syfovre and Empaveli combined
The pipeline, if positive, could generate more than $7 billion in combined peak sales, which would take the company's five-year CAGR to the mid-single digit range, the analyst stated.
Fadia further noted the next catalysts as Litifilimab’s Phase III in SLE (systemic lupus erythematosus) in the fourth quarter of 2026) and in CLE (cutaneous lupus erythematosus) in mid-2027. She estimates peak sales of more than $2 billion.
"Management expects to de-lever post the Apellis deal by YE27, which should help preserve its strategic flexibility to continue to pursue business development," the analyst further wrote.
BIIB Price Action: Biogen shares were down 0.34% at $194.68 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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