Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may spend the remainder of 2026 trading below its long-term fair value trend, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who nevertheless remains optimistic about the industry’s long-term growth trajectory.

BTC Below “Fair Value” Trendline

In a podcast on June 8, Cowen revisited one of his longest-running valuation models and suggested an update could be coming later this year.

The analyst said his existing framework has successfully captured much of Bitcoin’s market behavior over the past several years, including the current cycle’s resemblance to the 2019-2020 period.

"Sort of the assessment that this whole cycle was kind of like that 2019 move, and then we just kind of went above it and faded back down, that’s basically what we’ve done," Cowen said.

Based on current market conditions, he expects Bitcoin to remain below its long-term logarithmic regression “fair value” trendline for much of the rest of the year. This is mainly as investors navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment shaped by tighter monetary policy and lingering concerns about inflation.

Midterm-Year Weakness Still In Play

Cowen attributed part of that outlook to historical seasonality. “Midterm years aren’t necessarily the best for crypto,” he said.

While June could potentially mark a local bottom, Cowen cautioned that identifying the exact low remains difficult.

Despite the current downturn, Cowen remains bullish on the long-term trajectory of the digital asset industry.

Looking further ahead, he reiterated his long-held belief that the cryptocurrency sector will ultimately grow into a $10 trillion asset class, though the path there may include significant volatility.

Since he started his update in 2019-2020, the market valuation has multiplied from $261 billion to $2.1 trillion currently.

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