President Donald Trump is again promising an Iran deal is days away, but a new CNN count revealed it is at least the 38th time he has said so since March 23.

Speaking to reporters early Tuesday after attending the NBA Finals in New York, Trump said the US and Iran were in the “final throes” of an agreement that could be signed in two or three days, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening immediately upon signing.

The original ceasefire announced on April 7 was meant to give both sides two weeks to finalize a deal. Two months on, no agreement has been reached.

Prediction Markets Aren’t Buying It

Polymarket traders have learned to stay skeptical through the repeated assurances. The contract on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 was trading near 22% today, while the July 31 version sat at roughly 36%.

A separate market on a permanent US-Iran peace by June 30 has drifted into the low 20s, after Iran reportedly suspended talks following Israeli operations in Lebanon.

Trump himself acknowledged that friction in an interview with Axios over the weekend, blaming a “side scuffle” between Israel and Iran for jeopardizing the deal, before pivoting back to the two-or-three-days timeline by Tuesday.

What It Means For Oil Stocks

The math for crude runs through the Strait, which has been effectively closed since late February and which moves around a fifth of seaborne oil.

Brent recently traded around $86 a barrel, down from north of $110 in mid-May on ceasefire optimism. Executives at Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) have warned global inventories may be running dangerously low.

The United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) has roughly doubled year-to-date, making it one of 2026’s most consequential commodity trades. A confirmed Hormuz reopening would likely pressure that position, while a significant collapse in talks may relieve it.

Trump Acknowledged The Pattern

Trump’s rhetorical arc has gone from Iran “begging” on March 26, to having “agreed to everything” on April 17, to being in the “final throes” Tuesday.

He acknowledged the pattern himself on May 18, conceding past predictions hadn’t panned out before adding “but this is a little bit different.” It was not.

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