Just one trading day after BTIG flagged that history was stacked against Nasdaq bulls, the index made good on that prediction — breaking below its Friday intraday low before Tuesday’s session was even half over.
The Nasdaq Composite sliced through the 25,648.47 intraday floor set during Friday’s brutal chip-driven rout, touching 24,980.38 on Tuesday.
- MRVL stock is moving lower. See the chart and price action here.
Friday’s session had already dealt significant damage, with the index shedding 4.18% to close at 25,709.43. It was the worst single-day drop since April 2025, fueled by disappointment after Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) declined to raise its AI chip revenue outlook.
In a Monday note, BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky laid out the historical case: in 17 of the 21 prior instances where the Nasdaq fell 4% or more on a Friday, it broke that Friday’s intraday low the very next Monday.
The chances rose even higher when the window was extended to five trading days. Tuesday’s action confirms the pattern is playing out on schedule.
“When NDX loses -4% or more on a Friday, there is a 90% chance that Friday low is breached in the next five trading days,” Krinsky wrote, per CNBC.
He added that the index was retesting its 20-day moving average from below — typically a spot to reduce exposure for investors still nursing losses from the prior week.
The two historical exceptions in which the Friday low held for more than a week both occurred deep in bear markets, when stocks were oversold.
Despite the grim near-term picture, BTIG noted that average and median forward returns for the Nasdaq Composite have consistently been positive in the weeks following a severe Friday selloff, offering a longer-term silver lining for investors willing to weather the turbulence.
Price Action
The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 25,406.76 on Tuesday afternoon, down 2.02%, with a session low of 24,980.38, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 2.31% to $699.52, hitting an intraday low of $686.37.
The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), tracking the S&P 500, held up comparatively better, sliding 1.09% to $731.18.
The semiconductor sector led losses on the Nasdaq, with chipmakers broadly lower as selling pressure from Friday’s session continued to ripple through the space:
- Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) fell 10.82%.
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) dropped 6.23%.
- Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) was down 5.01%.
- Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) fell 4.81%.
- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) shed 3.54%.
- Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) slipped 2.11%.
- Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) was down 1.27%.
Photo: Who is Danny / Shutterstock
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