Silver prices fell Tuesday, sliding more than 4% to around $65 an ounce as a risk-off wave swept through markets and traders ramped up bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.
The move extends one of the most violent reversals in the precious-metals complex in years. Silver – as tracked by the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) – has now collapsed roughly 47% from its record high of $121.64, set in late January 2026.
The metal has also broken below its 200-day moving average, the first such breach since April 2025. The 10-day relative strength index is further falling in an oversold territory.
The Fed Is The Catalyst
The driver behind silver’s recent drop has been a sharp repricing of Fed policy. A run of hot inflation prints and a stronger-than-expected labor market have pushed the market toward tighter policy, not easier.
The U.S. inflation rate jumped to 3.8% annually in April – the highest in nearly three years – with economists expecting the Consumer Price Index to print a 4.2% annual surge in May.
Meanwhile, the job market surprised to the upside. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 172,000 last month, smashing estimates of 85,000 and following a 93,000 upward revision for March and April.
CME FedWatch now assigns a 61% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the October 2026 meeting, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00% from the current 3.50%-3.75%.
By the December 2026 meeting, a quarter-point hike is all but fully priced, at roughly 96%.
The Al Wrinkle
Silver also caught a downdraft from this week’s volatility in technology stocks.
Investors have increasingly treated the metal as a proxy for the artificial-intelligence buildout, given its role as an industrial input across electronics and power infrastructure.
On Tuesday, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) sunk over 3%, while the iShares Semiconductor Sector ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) fell 3.7%.
22V Research Sees Lower Prices Ahead
John Roque, technical analyst at 22V Research, is unconvinced the damage in precious metals is done. He indicated that both gold and silver continue to signal lower levels ahead.
First, oversold assets that fail to rally tend to reinforce their own weakness.
Second, the price ranges carved out since the January peaks are far too wide, so wide he likens them to deep, hard-to-navigate chasms, well beyond the narrow, orderly ranges that defined the prior uptrend.
Third, sentiment looks offside: he says he is fielding more questions about buying gold and silver now than he did during the sustained 2024-2025 rally.
Per Roque, that combination is the problem. “Continued bullish sentiment and deteriorating momentum conditions is, quite often, a situation that is only solved by lower prices,” he wrote in an emailed note.
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