Accounts linked to military spouses reportedly bet correctly on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, days before U.S. officials seized him in January.

Now Kalshi is moving to force some traders to disclose who they work for.

At least one of those accounts has been referred to federal investigators over suspicions that someone used nonpublic information to make the wager, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Kalshi Wants To Know Where You Work

The exchange said it plans to require users in some markets to submit an online form naming their employer before they can trade sensitive contracts.

The rule is expected to cover markets tied to company performance and national security, including the war in Iran.

Kalshi will not verify the information unless it flags suspicious activity, a spokeswoman said. The company is also rolling out enhanced whistleblower tools.

The Insider Trading Wave

The spouses are not an isolated case.

In April, a U.S. soldier was charged with using classified national security data to trade the Maduro operation on Polymarket.

Last month, a Google employee was charged with using insider access to the company’s annual search trends report to net 1.2 million on the same platform.

Those cases explain why Kalshi’s audit committee pushed for disclosure.

Kalshi has made more than 20 referrals to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Justice Department this year, including former New York Congressman George Santos, who allegedly profited tens of thousands betting against his own State of the Union attendance after publicly hyping it.

Washington Draws New Lines

The CFTC is set to propose its own rules Wednesday, seeking the power to block wagers it deems against the public interest or vulnerable to manipulation while clearing most sports betting.

The target is micro-betting, where a single person can swing the outcome. Regulators are wary of contracts on player injuries and “first-pitch” gambling, the category that snared Cleveland Guardians All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who was charged last year over a pitch-rigging scheme.

Bets on war, terrorism and assassinations would likely be off limits, but this would not impact Polymarket’s offshore offerings.

The agency stopped short of outright bans, opting for case-by-case review. That posture reflects Trump-appointed chair Michael Selig, who has steered the CFTC toward a permissive stance.

The Tradeable Angle

Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket is public, but investors have proxies. Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, has poured roughly 2 billion into Polymarket and now sells its data to institutions.

Retail flow runs through Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD), where prediction markets are the fastest-growing product line by revenue.

For ICE and Robinhood, the wager is that regulation legitimizes prediction markets rather than killing them.

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