Glassnode’s weekly on-chain report shows over 95% of short-term Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holders are underwater, with May buyers down 17% to 19% and no meaningful demand response yet from institutions or corporate treasuries.

Recent Buyers Are Deeply Underwater With No Meaningful Bounce Yet

Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder MVRV, which tracks how much recent buyers are up or down on average, printed 0.81 at its low before recovering slightly to 0.83. 

The $78,000 to $82,000 accumulation cluster built during May is now broadly in loss. Meanwhile, only 3.3% of short-term holder supply is currently in profit against a four-year average of 55%, meaning more than 95% of recent buyers are underwater.

The selling pressure is building but has not hit the extreme that historically marks a true bottom. 

The loss realization indicator sits at -1.86, just one small step away from the -2 level that in past cycles has signaled peak fear and preceded meaningful recoveries.

Institutional And Corporate Demand Both Pulled Back

The Coinbase Premium dropped into discount territory as Bitcoin fell toward $60,000, signaling US institutions stepped back from spot buying rather than buying the dip.

Corporate treasury accumulation, which peaked above $500 million per day in April and May, slowed to near zero in June, removing another key source of market support.

A major deleveraging event swept through the market as Bitcoin broke below $64,000 to $70,000 support, liquidating a large concentration of leveraged longs. 

The leverage profile is now notably cleaner, but that flush has not yet been met by fresh spot demand to replace it.

Options Markets Pricing In More Downside With $65,000 As The Key Gamma Level

Options traders are paying sharply more for downside protection after the breakdown. One-month implied volatility jumped from 34% to 45%, and put options, which pay out if price falls, now account for 35.9% of all options premium traded in the last 24 hours.

The key level to watch is $65,000. That is where the largest concentration of dealer short gamma sits, meaning market makers are forced to sell Bitcoin as price falls toward that zone, which can accelerate moves lower.

Meaningful support from dealers only kicks in much higher, between $76,000 and $82,000.

Two macro conditions need to flip before Bitcoin can stage a real recovery.

The US dollar index needs to break convincingly below 99, and the 10-year Treasury yield needs to drop toward 4.2%. Right now the dollar sits at 100.01 and the 10-year holds at 4.53%, so neither condition is anywhere close.

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