The global race for critical minerals has entered a new phase. Between the energy transition, electric vehicle adoption, the AI capex race, and advanced manufacturing, the demand for metals is growing and becoming a matter of national security.

The latest 2026 UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report argues that critical mineral markets are undergoing a structural reconfiguration.

Governments are increasingly deploying export taxes, licensing requirements, and outright bans not merely to protect supplies but to capture more value domestically through processing and manufacturing.

Since 2020, nearly 100 export-related measures affecting critical energy transition minerals have been introduced by producer nations seeking to move beyond their traditional role as raw material exporters.

“Trade policy is increasingly being used to secure access to and participate in critical energy transition mineral supply chains,” the report notes.

At the same time, the mining sector is struggling. Easily accessible deposits are maturing, ore grades are declining, and development timelines are lengthening. The result is a supply-curve pressure at the worst possible moment – when demand is set to explode.

Lithium in the Center

According to UNCTAD calculations based on International Energy Agency data, lithium is the key mineral in the transition. The projected growth in demand is as high as 353% between 2024 and 2040 – far eclipsing other minerals.

Yet lithium’s future is anything but straightforward. After enduring a three-year downturn, the market rebounded strongly in 2026. Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB), the key U.S. producer, is up 18.40% year-to-date, even after a notable slump in May.

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSE:LIT) is up 24.29% year-to-date.

Still, the metal’s recovery didn’t come from demand but rather from the suspension of China’s Jianxiawo mine – one of the world’s largest lithium operations with 150,000 tons of annual capacity.

“The timing of resumption is the single largest swing factor in the price outlook over the next 24 months,” the Benchmark Mineral Intelligence noted, according to Reuters.

The disruption exposed how vulnerable the market remains to supply shocks. China’s processing Chain dried up while Zimbabwe added pressure with export restrictions. Concentration remains a big factor, since Australia, Chile, and China collectively account for 72% of global lithium mine output.

The Final Frontier

Beyond Earth’s crust, however, the industry’s imagination is extending into space.

Asteroids and lunar deposits may contain enormous reserves of nickel, iron, and platinum-group metals. But space mining remains fundamentally an infrastructure challenge rather than a simple supply story.

Returning materials to Earth has historically been commercially prohibitive given the extraordinary costs of extraction, transport, and processing.

However, SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) IPO last week might be one of the key steps in changing that equation. By dramatically reducing launch costs and dominating private spaceflight, the company provides the logistical foundation future space miners will require. AstroForge has already secured deep-space commercial licenses and launched missions designed to harvest asteroid resources.

Early efforts will likely focus on extracting lunar water to support fuel production and sustained exploration during the 2030s. Long before asteroid metals enter terrestrial manufacturing, mining’s next frontier may first help humanity expand deeper into space.

Photo by Rebel Red Runner via Shutterstock