Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) has popped above $65,000 on peace deal news, but its current long-term downturn may have more to do with time than price, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.

“Time-Based Capitulation More Important“

In a June 14 market update, Cowen compared Bitcoin’s current cycle to prior midterm-year bear markets in 2014, 2018 and 2022, which historically lasted between 50 and 60 weeks from peak to trough.

While the current downturn roughly 35 weeks old, Cowen says the market may still need additional time before a definitive bottom forms.

Over the past month, BTC prices plunged around 16% while the past year saw a 37% drop.

"Time-based capitulation is actually more important than price-based capitulation," Cowen noted.

The analyst contrasted that with a “price-based capitulation” scenario, where a sharp selloff rapidly resets on-chain indicators and accelerates the bottoming process.

Why It Matters

Cowen pointed to the 2020 COVID-19 crash as a rare example of price-based capitulation.

During that event, Bitcoin’s rapid decline pushed key on-chain metrics to extreme lows, allowing the market to bottom sooner than a typical time-based cycle would suggest.

He predicts a similar outcome could occur in 2026 if Bitcoin experiences a significant selloff that fully resets valuation indicators.           

“If Bitcoin were to absolutely nuke into June and go down another $20,000, then I don’t know that it would make sense to stay bearish into October,” Cowen said.

Without such a move, he expects the market to continue following a historical midterm-year pattern that could see Bitcoin find a temporary low, rally during the summer and potentially revisit lower levels later in the year.

Cowen also highlighted Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit-and-loss metric, noting that prior cycle lows typically arrived one to four months after the indicator crossed into bearish territory.

Image: Shutterstock