President Donald Trump‘s declaration that the U.S.-Iran peace deal is “now complete” has minted at least one outsized winner on Polymarket.

A pseudonymous trader known as wan123 booked more than $1 million in profit over a single day, according to public portfolio data, as the platform repriced an agreement toward near-certainty.

wan123 had loaded up on “Yes” shares for a permanent U.S.-Iran deal by June 15, buying in around 16 cents on a contract now near 88 cents, still shy of a full dollar as traders weigh whether Monday’s declaration counts before Friday’s signing.

That position alone was worth over $1.25 million in the portfolio, a gain of more than 460%, on the June 15 market.

A smaller “Yes” bet on a deal by June 30 has more than tripled, and a wager that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by month’s end has padded the total.

What Is Actually In The Deal

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country mediated, said the deal had been reached and that a signing ceremony is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.

Under a 60-day ceasefire extension, Iran has reportedly agreed to clear mines from Hormuz, while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade and lets Iranian oil sales resume.

There are four key clauses in the deal.

Iran would pledge not to pursue a nuclear weapon and dilute its enriched uranium under international supervision.

The draft also reportedly halts military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israeli strikes nearly derailed the talks.

In exchange, Iran would see phased sanctions relief and a reported $25 billion in frozen assets released.

Will This Deal Stick?

Crude fell more than 4% as Trump declared the deal now complete. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote on Truth Social, authorizing a “toll free” opening of the waterway.

Iranian state media reported the strait would reopen within 30 days “under Iranian arrangements,” a slower path than the immediate opening Trump described. Iran will reportedly allow free Hormuz passage for now, though questions over future tolls remain.

The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), which tracks WTI futures directly, is down almost 5% today and may continue to slide if the Hormuz reopening holds and crude’s war premium keeps bleeding out.

The deal looks likely, but wan123 has not cashed in his bets yet, and this wouldn’t be the first ceasefire to break down.

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