Vice President JD Vance worked the morning shows Monday to sell a landmark U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a deal President Donald Trump said Vance could sign for the U.S. on Friday in Switzerland.

The framework, reached Sunday and set for a formal signing on June 19, jolted markets.

Oil fell to its lowest level since March on the prospect of restored Gulf shipping, pressuring oil-linked funds such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO).

Vance pledged that “not a single dollar” of U.S. money will reach Iran unless Tehran abandons its nuclear weapons program, with sanctions relief tied to verified compliance.

Later this week, Vance is promoting Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith, a HarperCollins memoir on his Catholic conversion and spiritual sequel to Hillbilly Elegy, while also making a first appearance on ABC’s “The View.”

That is a heavy, dual-track national media run for a man who says his political future is not top of mind.

Why The Iran Deal Is Now Vance’s 2028 Problem

The diplomacy cuts both ways. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has labeled Vance the deal’s “architect” and wants him to present it to Congress, while warning that Iran’s version of the terms diverges from Washington’s. If the agreement holds, Vance banks a major foreign policy win. If it collapses inside the 60-day negotiating window, he owns the failure.

On Polymarket, the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market gives Vance 33% odds. His chances had been falling steadily, but have had a noticeable uptick in June.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime Iran hawk, is in second with 24%, on a market that has cleared more than $500 million in volume.

Vance Built A Base Beyond Thiel

Peter Thiel, who bankrolled Vance’s Senate run with $15 million in campaign financing, has decamped to Argentina just as the markets cool on his protégé’s 2028 odds.

But Vance did not wait around to be outflanked. Last year, he assumed the role of finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, the first sitting vice president in history to ever serve in that position.

This unprecedented move gives him valuable face time with the party’s most influential conservative donors, allowing him to build a massive national network completely independent of Thiel.

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