Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY) CEO Mike Novogratz says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is heading back above $70,000 and that Washington will eventually inflate its way out of debt, but the one trade making him uneasy is the biggest IPO in history.

Speaking on his “All Things Markets” podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz called SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) the biggest IPO ever by a factor of three, raising roughly $75 billion against the $25 billion Saudi Aramco deal.

Novogratz isn’t alone in flagging the froth. Short seller James Chanos called SpaceX a “hopes and dreams IPO,” noting it came public at roughly 90 times revenue, versus the 10 to 15 times a normal business trades at.

Why The IPO Makes Novogratz Nervous

Novogratz argued the U.S. has no clean exit from its $40 trillion debt other than inflating it away, likely running 3% to 4% inflation for a decade while telling markets it still targets 2%.

The danger, he said, is that confidence breaks and inflation spikes toward 14%, wiping out the debt and the wealth alongside it.

Novogratz compared the SpaceX debut to the Palm IPO that landed at the top of the dot-com bubble, warning that “sometimes this is how great markets end.”

His bigger worry was mechanical. Novogratz said index-rule changes from the SEC and S&P forced passive funds to buy, meaning a slice of demand had nothing to do with valuation.

That structure has drawn political heat. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) urged the SEC to delay the listing, warning that Elon Musk‘s super-voting shares would hand him roughly 82% of voting power after the offering.

Bitcoin & The Clarity Act

On crypto, Novogratz was more constructive, putting the odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000 at roughly 70/30, though he tied that to the Clarity Act advancing through the Senate. Polymarket traders are less convinced near-term, pricing just a 48% chance of a $70,000 Bitcoin print in June.

The same site prices the Clarity Act passing at 53%, down from the mid-70s earlier in the year.

He also called Michael Saylor‘s recent $2.5 million Bitcoin sale a mistake, saying he would rather Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) issue stock to cover its dividends than touch the stack.

The Tesla Read-Through

Chanos used Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) as his template, arguing the carmaker trades on robotaxi and Full Self-Driving promises that haven’t yet materialized.

The promises underpinning Tesla still look shaky to traders. Polymarket gives just a 3% chance Tesla launches robotaxis in California by June 30, and only 16% odds its Optimus robot ships by year-end.

For traders, the cleaner expression of Musk skepticism may be the car company they forgot about.

Image: Shutterstock