Only about 4% of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares actually trade.

That sliver has been enough to push Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company past Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) to a $2.65 trillion market cap, and to make Musk the world’s first trillionaire on paper.

Nicolas Owens, an equity analyst at Morningstar, pegs SpaceX’s fair value at $780 billion, less than one third of the current market cap.

The euphoria looks starker against the fundamentals.

SpaceX generated just $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 and posted a $4.94 billion net loss once it folded in February’s xAI merger, then lost another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

The AI segment is the money pit, dropping more than $6 billion last year while Starlink stays profitable.

The float is unusual on top of being small. SpaceX earmarked roughly 30% of its IPO for retail investors, triple the typical mega-cap allocation, leaving a thin pool of stock dominated by individual traders.

Where The $780 Billion Comes From

Owens broke down the gap this week on the Prof G Markets podcast with co-host Ed Elson.

His discounted cash flow model splits the company into rockets, Starlink and AI.

The rocket and Starlink businesses account for about $611 billion, the mature core.

The AI segment, built around xAI and the data-center-in-space thesis, adds roughly $170 billion on a probability-weighted basis. SpaceX poured $12.7 billion into AI last year, and that spending is driving the losses.

Owens said there is only about a 7% chance that Starship becomes rapidly reusable and that orbital data centers prove cheaper than ground sites at the same time.

What The Prediction Markets Say

On Kalshi, a market on whether a one-megawatt data center goes live in orbit gives the idea only a 39% chance before 2035, but just 23% before 2031, agreeing with Owens that the near-term version of SpaceX’s thesis as a long shot.

The market for the world’s year-end largest company gives SpaceX a 7% shot at the top spot, far behind Nvidia at 69%.

A Nasdaq rule change lets SpaceX join the index roughly 15 trading days after listing. Part of Owens’s thesis is that in the short term indexes like the QQQ will push up SpaceX’s market cap.

Polymarket thinks there is a 47% chance that SpaceX hits $3 trillion this month.

The S&P will not allow SpaceX to join its index for at least a year.

In August, lock-up agreements begin freeing tens of billions in insider stock after SpaceX’s first earnings report, the moment Owens calls the real test of supply and demand.

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