Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS) is sitting on a 41% stock upside — but you wouldn’t know it from the way the shares are priced. That’s the disconnect BNP Paribas is highlighting after hosting an industry expert event with hobby‑store owner Greg May, whose shops sell one of Hasbro’s most important products: Magic: The Gathering.
The bank’s takeaway is simple: the market may not fully understand what’s driving the company anymore.
Magic keeps expanding, margins keep rising, and the player ecosystem continues to pull in new customers — yet Hasbro’s valuation still looks like it belongs to a traditional toy maker.
The Magic Flywheel Is Still Working
According to analyst Xian Siew, player engagement remains strong and the Magic ecosystem continues to attract new players. A major driver has been Hasbro’s "Universes Beyond" strategy, which introduces Magic cards based on popular franchises such as Marvel and The Lord of the Rings.
The collaborations serve as an entry point for new customers, while many remain engaged with future releases after joining the ecosystem.
Siew noted that 20% to 30% of Universes Beyond buyers may stay in the Magic ecosystem for subsequent releases, creating a flywheel effect that can support future growth. As the player base expands, demand for both collaboration‑themed sets and traditional Magic releases can grow alongside it.
Why BNP Sees More Upside
BNP’s bullishness on Hasbro isn’t just about revenue growth. It’s about margins. Siew estimates that incremental gross margins on Magic products are roughly 85%, meaning additional sales can have an outsized impact on earnings. That helps explain why the firm believes Magic can continue driving earnings growth in both 2026 and 2027.
The analyst also highlighted Hasbro’s ongoing transition away from slower-growing traditional toy categories and toward higher-growth gaming businesses.
Yet despite that shift, the stock trades at roughly 10 times EBITDA, a valuation BNP believes does not fully reflect the company’s evolving business mix. The bank has maintained a $117 price target on Hasbro shares, representing approximately 41% upside from recent levels.
The Runway May Be Longer Than Investors Think
While some hobby-store operators expressed caution around the upcoming Marvel Super Heroes release, enthusiasm remains high for future collaborations, including The Hobbit set scheduled for next year.
Siew also pointed to ongoing speculation within the Magic community surrounding additional Marvel-themed releases. Potential future collaborations involving franchises such as X-Men could further extend the growth runway.
For investors, the broader takeaway may be more important than any individual card set. Magic: The Gathering is increasingly becoming one of Hasbro’s most important profit engines. And according to BNP, the market still hasn’t fully adjusted to that reality.
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