Despite a recent period of market consolidation, dubbed the “June swoon,” the S&P 500 is positioned for a major breakout. Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick expects a massive July stock market rally, fueled by a historically rare technical setup, strong corporate earnings, and a justified artificial intelligence boom.
Normalizing The ‘June Swoon’
While late June has brought some choppy trading and sector rotation, Detrick remains unfazed, viewing the pullback as a routine pause rather than a macroeconomic warning sign.
“I think this consolidation, if you will, during June, is perfectly normal,” Detrick told CNBC. “The June swoon, the second half of June, is not usually that great. That’s kind of where we are.”
Rather than signaling a market top, Detrick believes this breather paves the way for a robust July. He emphasized that July is historically “one of the strongest months,” heavily driven by the upcoming earnings season and continued capital expenditures in the tech sector.
A Rare And Bullish Setup
The broader market has surged nearly 20% over a rapid two-month stretch, a rare historical feat that points to future gains.
“We were up 19.5% in 42 trading days,” Detrick noted, explaining that since World War II, this specific velocity has occurred only seven times.
The historical precedent for such a rapid ascent is remarkably optimistic. When asked what happens following these rare surges, Detrick was definitive: “Higher three months later, every time, six months later, every time, and a year later, every time.”
The ‘Barbell Approach’ To Tech And Rotation
Unlike the tech bubble of 1999, Detrick argues today’s market valuations are rooted in reality. Pointing to recent semiconductor data, he noted the numbers “completely support the bullish [case] or even more than support it.”
However, Detrick advises investors to embrace the current internal market rotation by adopting a strategic “barbell approach.” While remaining “slightly overweight technology,” he suggests balancing portfolios by keeping “some financials and some industrials” on the other end.
Ultimately, Detrick predicts a resilient labor market and “inflationary growth” will carry the economy through the year. Reflecting this optimism, Carson Group’s upcoming midyear outlook is aptly titled Still Riding the Wave, capturing Detrick’s confidence that the current bull market is “alive and well.”
How Have Markets Performed In 2026?
The S&P 500 index has advanced 7.29% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 9.64%, and the Dow Jones gained 7.16% YTD.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, closed lower on Wednesday. The SPY ended down 0.046% at $733.24, while the QQQ declined by 0.42% to $710.62.
Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), closed 0.37% higher on Wednesday.
In premarket on Thursday, SPY was up 0.62%, QQQ jumped 2.02%, and DIA gained 0.26%.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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