Sam Altman’s OpenAI is chasing a trillion-dollar IPO, but new reporting suggests the listing may now slip to 2027 as the company burns through cash at a record pace.

The artificial intelligence firm is leaning toward holding off until next year, according to a New York Times report citing three people involved in the deliberations.

Advisers reportedly presented Altman with two options: wait until 2027 for the trillion-dollar tag, or settle for a smaller number and list in 2026. Altman reportedly called any reduction a “non-starter.”

CFO Sarah Friar is said to be pushing internally for the delay, citing roughly $600 billion in compute infrastructure commitments through 2030 as a reason the company needs more runway before facing public-company reporting obligations.

Gary Marcus Sees ‘No Rational Argument’

NYU professor and AI skeptic Gary Marcus told the Prof G Markets podcast this week that the math simply does not work.

“There is no rational argument for buying a share of OpenAI at a trillion-dollar valuation. There just isn’t,” Marcus said, noting the company is losing roughly $2 billion a month on operations.

Marcus, who testified before the U.S. Senate in 2023 alongside Altman, has previously likened OpenAI to telecom-era flameout WorldCom. He suggested the company may now sit in fourth place behind Anthropic, Google, and others.

Polymarket traders place OpenAI third in the race to have the best model by the end of 2026, at 11%, far behind Anthropic at 67%, but ahead of Elon Musk’s troubled xAI. Google is in second with 13%.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that OpenAI has missed recent internal revenue targets, lending weight to skepticism about the company’s financial trajectory.

Polymarket Traders Bet On A Delay

Polymarket’s “OpenAI IPO by…” market currently assigns a 78% probability that the company will not list before December 31, 2026.

A separate market gives Anthropic a 77% probability of beating OpenAI to the public markets, following its own confidential S-1 filing on June 1.

SpaceX Slump Casts A Shadow

The advisers’ caution may also be tied to the rocky debut of SpaceX Inc. (NASDAQ:SPCX), whose shares have tumbled from above $225 to around $153 since its record IPO earlier this month.

The stock still trades comfortably above its $135 offer price, meaning early IPO buyers are in the green, but the roughly 30% retracement from its peak may have spooked the executives weighing OpenAI’s listing window.

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