Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) may have far fewer robotaxis on the road than Alphabet Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo today, but JPMorgan says that isn’t necessarily a sign Elon Musk is falling behind.
In its latest autonomous vehicle roadmap, JPMorgan noted that Waymo has 640 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas, compared with just 84 for Tesla, even after Tesla expanded its robotaxi footprint beyond Austin into Dallas and Houston this year. Rather than viewing the gap as a competitive weakness, the firm argues Tesla is intentionally prioritizing software readiness over fleet expansion.
Why Tesla’s Robotaxi Fleet Is Smaller
JPMorgan said Tesla has taken a deliberately measured approach to its robotaxi rollout despite investor excitement around the company’s autonomous driving ambitions.
“Our view. Tesla has been cautious in its robotaxi rollout in Austin, and more recently in Dallas and Houston,” the analysts wrote. “On the 1Q call, Tesla management talked about taking a very cautious approach to the rollout of robotaxis.”
According to the note, Tesla believes there are still “many known improvements” that can be made to its Full Self-Driving software before deploying unsupervised vehicles at scale. As a result, the company sees little value in rapidly expanding its commercial fleet while major software upgrades remain in development.
That stands in contrast to Waymo, which has aggressively expanded across Texas after launching in Austin in March 2025 and has since entered Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. Of the company’s 640 Texas autonomous vehicles, JPMorgan estimates about 594 are Jaguar I-PACEs, while 46 are the new sixth-generation Ojai robotaxis.
Tesla’s FSD Progress Could Matter More Than Fleet Size
JPMorgan argues that the robotaxi race is not simply about who has the largest fleet today.
The firm highlighted continued improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software, noting that FSD version 14.x has surpassed 2,000 miles to critical disengagement, representing roughly a 4.3-fold improvement over the approximately 460 miles achieved by version 13.x.
The analysts also pointed to Tesla’s safety statistics, which show vehicles operating with FSD (Supervised) in North America average 5.5 million miles before a major collision, more than eight times the U.S. average, while traveling about 1.6 million miles before a minor collision, roughly seven times the national average.
Cybercab Could Change The Picture
While Waymo currently enjoys a sizeable lead in deployed robotaxis, JPMorgan believes Tesla’s strategy is geared toward a much larger rollout once its software reaches the desired level of maturity.
The firm noted that Cybercab has already entered pilot production, with volume production expected later this year, potentially setting the stage for a much faster fleet expansion than investors are seeing today.
For now, the numbers heavily favor Waymo. But JPMorgan’s takeaway is that Tesla’s smaller robotaxi fleet reflects a conscious product strategy rather than an attempt to win the deployment race as quickly as possible.
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