Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) climbed back above $61,000 on Thursday, even as ETF outflows since May 6 tally $8.5 billion—a level analytics firm Santiment says historically signals capitulation.

Warsh’s Softer Tone Gave Bitcoin Its Strongest Session In Over A Week

Bitcoin had been pinned below $60,000 for days and touched as low as $58,200 earlier this week before Fed Chairman Warsh’s comments at the ECB’s forum in Sintra, Portugal, shifted the mood. 

His remarks that inflation risks had come down marked his first notably softer tone since a hawkish June rate outlook triggered weeks of ETF outflows that sent Bitcoin sliding through the entire quarter.

What made Thursday’s move stand out was the backdrop it came against. South Korea’s Kospi fell 7.9% after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shed a combined $290 billion in market value on AI chip demand worries. 

Meta added to the unease by announcing plans to sell spare computing power to outside customers, reviving questions about whether the AI infrastructure buildout has outpaced real demand.

Bitcoin held its gain through all of it.

$8.5 Billion In ETF Outflows Is Starting To Look Like Capitulation, Not Collapse

Santiment flagged that Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded $8.475 billion in combined net outflows since May 6, the kind of streak that historically signals retail fear and frustration rather than a fresh reason to sell.

Santiment’s analysis frames heavy outflows as a sentiment signal, not a directional one.

When ETF investors pull money at this scale and pace, it tends to mark the point where weak hands have already left rather than the beginning of a new leg lower. 

The longer this outflow streak extends, the stronger the case that Bitcoin is approaching a genuine bottom zone rather than continuing to fall.

Friday’s Jobs Report Is The Next Swing Factor

FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich had flagged $40,000 as the next real support level if Bitcoin lost the $60,000 floor, but Thursday’s push back above $61,000 puts distance between current price and that scenario.

Friday’s US payrolls report now sets the tone for July. A strong print gives the Fed cover to stay restrictive and could reignite outflow pressure. A soft number revives rate cut bets and extends Bitcoin’s relief rally.

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