The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) downtrend towards $60,000 has several of the industry’s most respected research firms arguing about the key question: is the bottom in and if not, where is the bottom?

Bearish, Balanced Or Bullish?

During a Milk Road podcast on July 5, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted three recent research reports that reached three different conclusions on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.

Galaxy Digital took the most bearish stance, arguing Bitcoin has not yet bottomed. Reviewing roughly a dozen historical bottom indicators, the firm found only three had flashed and suggested BTC could fall towards the $40,000 level.

NYDIG adopted a more balanced view.

The firm noted that Bitcoin’s drawdowns have become progressively shallower across market cycles.

They suggest a decline of around 50% from the peak, roughly near $50,000 which could mark this cycle’s bottom.

Standard Chartered maintained the most bullish position, arguing the worst is already over.

The bank pointed to improving spot ETF flows and other market indicators, saying Bitcoin likely established its bottom around the $59,000 level.

Current Cycle Not Over

Despite differing calls on where Bitcoin ultimately bottoms, Hougan noted all three firms shared one important conclusion, none believe the current cycle is over.

"The relevant question is not where is the bottom. The relevant question is where is the top," Hougan said.

He argued that if Bitcoin ultimately reaches substantially higher prices over the coming years, investors may look back and find the difference between buying at $40,000, $50,000 or $60,000 relatively insignificant.

“I’m focused on where the top is. I think the top is substantially higher,” he said, reiterating his long-term forecast that Bitcoin could eventually reach $1.3 million.

Host Ryan Rasmussen echoed that view, arguing Bitcoin’s drawdowns have naturally become less severe as the asset matures and institutional participation grows.

Historical bear-market declines have moderated from roughly 94% during Bitcoin’s earliest cycle to 88%, 84% and 78% in subsequent cycles.

While BTC could still decline below current levels, Rasmussen said he believes a repeat of those deeper historical drawdowns is increasingly unlikely given growing institutional adoption.

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