Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl on Tuesday argued that Strategy Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sales should restore market confidence and help Bitcoin find a more durable bottom.

Why Grayscale Sees The Sales As A Positive Signal

Strategy holds roughly $52 billion in Bitcoin against just $7 billion in debt, with annual preferred dividend obligations under $2 billion.

The balance sheet was never the problem, Pandl argued.

What unsettled markets was Strategy letting its USD cash reserve fall to around $870 million in late May, covering only six months of dividends. 

Investors didn’t know whether Saylor would sell shares at depressed prices, sell Bitcoin, or leave preferred shareholders exposed.

The Digital Credit Capital Framework answered those questions. Strategy committed to maintaining at least 12 months of preferred dividend coverage and confirmed it would sell shares or Bitcoin as needed to stay there. 

Monday’s $216 million sale pushed reserves back to $2.55 billion, covering roughly 17 months of dividends.

“The rebound in the price of STRC suggests investors are now more confident about the instrument,” Pandl wrote. STRC rose 2.1% to just below $90 Monday, continuing its recovery from last week’s low below $75.

The Trading Around The Sales Raises Its Own Questions

The sequence of moves over the past few weeks has left Strategy’s near-term capital allocation harder to predict. 

The company sold 32 Bitcoin in late May when price was near $74,000, then bought 3,657 Bitcoin at significantly higher prices, then sold 3,588 Bitcoin at an average of roughly $60,000.

Crypto trader Kaleo pointed out on X that after netting the buys and sales, Strategy added only 69 Bitcoin despite deploying roughly $20 million in additional capital. 

Because the coins were sold below the prices recently paid, the implied average cost of those additional holdings exceeded $289,000 per Bitcoin.

Strategy booked $8.31 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings in Q2 as price fell from roughly $68,000 on April 1 to close June near $60,000. The company now holds 843,775 Bitcoin at an average purchase price of $75,476.

MSTR Sits Deep In Oversold Territory With Momentum Starting To Stabilize

MSTR trades 75% below its 12-month high and sits below every major moving average, with the October 2025 death cross still intact across the 20-day at $106.68, the 50-day at $141.94, and the 200-day at $178.93.

MACD has crossed above its signal line with a positive histogram, suggesting selling pressure is easing rather than a new uptrend starting. 

Key support sits at $82, aligning closely with the 52-week low at $81.81. Losing that level keeps the chart in lower-low mode. 

Holding it opens a bounce attempt back toward the 20-day moving average.

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