Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC said on Monday that Elon Musk-led Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares could drop below the IPO price of $135/share in the coming days.

SPCX’s Share Lock-Up

In a post on X, the investor said that the company’s shares will likely fall below “its $135 IPO price as 20% of locked shares become free in early-August.”

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The investor is pointing to the IPO’s structure that will allow insiders, excluding Musk and other majority shareholders, to sell up to 20% of the shares owned by them following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings call, according to a report by The Motley Fool.

The report said insiders can also sell up to 7% of their shares on the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th and 135th days after the company’s public debut.

Another 28% of shares can be sold following SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call. An additional 10% of shares can be sold if SPCX trades 30% higher than its IPO price for five out of 10 days in a row.

Gary Black Decries Tesla Valuation

The investor also lamented Tesla Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation. “As much as I love $TSLA the company, it’s difficult to support the valuation,” with the investor saying that its price-to-earnings ratio was 209 times compared to earnings-per-share growth of 35%.

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He also called out bullish Tesla supporters who “ignore valuation” concerns as “unsupervised autonomy becomes commoditized,” the investor said.

Black had earlier said that the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology was not enough to justify its valuation, arguing that institutional investors would “avoid the stock.”

The investor had also said that despite Tesla’s second-quarter 2026 delivery figures largely exceeding Wall Street expectations as the automaker delivered over 480,000 units during the second quarter, Tesla’s stock tumbled because of the Iran war-driven gas price volatility.

Benzinga Edge Rankings show SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.

Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 0.97% to $143.90 during pre-market trading on Monday.

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