One month after its historic June 12 IPO, Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is facing a reality check. Shares have plummeted 35.60% from their all-time high of $225.64 to Friday’s close of $145.30, exposing a widening divide between analysts who view the company as a transformative industrial power and those who fear it is becoming a speculative "meme stock."
The Valuation Chasm
Wall Street is sharply divided over SpaceX’s valuation and long-term outlook. On one side, Raymond James initiated coverage with a “Strong Buy” and an $800 price target, framing SpaceX as "the defining industrial infrastructure company of the 21st century."
Conversely, Morgan Stanley analysts have highlighted a massive $672 billion "funding risk," forecasting no free cash flow before 2035. Short-seller Jim Chanos ridiculed the bank’s internal contradiction, calling the disclosure of that massive capital need—while still issuing a buy recommendation—”truly glorious.”
Meme Stock Sentiment vs. AI Ambition
The rapid price erosion has left recent retail investors "definitely underwater." Keith Snyder, an analyst at CFRA, told the BBC that the stock "started to look a lot like a meme stock," where retail enthusiasm momentarily outpaced business fundamentals.
However, the bull case remains tethered to AI. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX could facilitate 5,288 Starship AI missions by 2031, turning the company into a critical node for global computing infrastructure. Musk has reinforced this narrative, using share volatility to acquire AI startup Cursor in a $60 billion stock-based deal.
The August Cliff
The road ahead remains treacherous. Gary Black warns that SpaceX shares could face further downward pressure in early August as 20% of locked shares become available for public trading. Investors are now pivoting their focus toward the company’s first public earnings report.
Samuel Kerr of Mergermarket also told the BBC that "If SpaceX can do all the things it says it will do, yes, investors are sitting on the most valuable company ever. But it’s got a lot of work to do to get there."
How Has SPCX Performed Since Its Listing?
Listed on June 12, 2026, SPCX shares were down 3.13% since their debut on the bourses. Despite its inclusion last week in the Nasdaq 100 index, the stock had declined by 10.31% over the last five sessions.
It closed 4.51% lower at $145.30 per share on Friday, and it was down 1.12% in overnight trading. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SPCX maintains a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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