Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has reclaimed its 200-week simple moving average after falling to an early-summer low near $57,000.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen though argues the recovery does not yet signal the end of the bear market.

BTC’s “Date With Destiny“

A July 2026 Bitcoin Cycle Memo by Cowen, released on July 16, explained that the current setup continues to favor a Q4 bottom, citing historical cycle patterns, on-chain data and macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin is trading around $64,400, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak, after recovering from a breakdown below the 200-week SMA.

Cowen terms the reclaim as Bitcoin’s long-awaited “date with destiny” but cautioned that a similar break-and-reclaim pattern occurred in 2022 before the market eventually printed its cycle low.

Instead, the analyst believes this cycle may complete its reset through an extended period of consolidation rather than a sharp final selloff.

On-Chain Data Suggests Bottoming Process, Not Confirmation

Cowen pointed to several long-term accumulation metrics that have entered historically favorable territory.

Risk indicators have fallen into zones that previously coincided with major buying opportunities, while the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit versus loss crossed at the early-summer low. This is a condition historically associated with bottoming periods.

However, the analyst said several key indicators have yet to fully reset.

The MVRV Z-Score remains above the levels typically seen at major cycle lows, Bitcoin has not revisited its realized price near $53,000, and previous bear markets bottomed below balanced price rather than above it.

The report also highlighted weakening market breadth and slowing ETF accumulation despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery.

For July 2026 till date, BTC ETFs witnessed net outflows of $11.3 million while June saw net outflow of $4.5 billion.

What’s Next?

Cowen identifies a sustained weekly move above the 50-week SMA near $86,500 as the key level that would invalidate the current bear-market thesis.

Until then, Bitcoin’s cycle low is likely “a matter of months rather than weeks away.”

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