Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are in the spotlight as earnings, analyst activity and interesting technicals converge.
- Tesla stock is showing weakness. Why is TSLA stock retreating?
Earnings History & What To Expect
Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 22. Tesla is expected to post earnings per share of 44 cents and revenue of $25.24 billion. In the most recent quarter, Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.41, beating estimates of $0.30 by 0.37%. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, exceeding the estimate of $22.17 billion by 0.01%.
Over the last 4 quarters, Tesla has averaged an EPS surprise of 0.19% and a revenue surprise of 0.02%.
Investors should watch automotive gross margin excluding credits, along with operating margin, for evidence that revenue growth is translating into real operating leverage — recent earnings beats have leaned more on profitability improvements than outsized revenue surprises.
FSD and software-related revenue signals, including deferred revenue movement, services growth, and any commentary on take-rate, will also be closely watched, since much of Tesla’s valuation still hinges on a broader software ramp. Delivery volumes and pricing commentary should also offer clues on demand elasticity, since volume growth without pricing power could keep EPS capped even if revenue reaches the $25.24 billion target.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions
The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $405.70. Notable recent moves include:
- Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $415.00 to $417.00) (July 14)
- Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $360.00 to $370.00) (July 14)
- Wells Fargo: Underweight (Raised Target from $125.00 to $130.00) (July 14)
A Bearish Tilt, But Not A Breakdown
Tesla is trading below all of its major trend gauges, sitting 3.6% under the 20-day SMA ($398.63), 6.2% below the 50-day SMA ($409.97), and 7.9% below the 200-day SMA ($417.36). That alignment keeps the intermediate trend tilted bearish, especially with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA and the death cross (50-day below 200-day) that formed in April still in place.
Momentum is best framed through RSI, which is at 46.28—neutral, but leaning soft and consistent with a market that’s not showing strong upside pressure. RSI measures how "stretched" a move is, and a mid-40s reading typically signals choppy, two-sided trade rather than a clean trend day.
- Key Resistance: $433.00 — a round-number area that can act as an overhead pivot where rebounds may stall
- Key Support: $380.00 — a nearby round-number level close to current trade where buyers may try to defend the pullback
From a longer-term perspective, the stock is still up 22.43% over the past 12 months, but the more recent structure has been weaker after a swing low in April and a swing high in May. Traders will be watching whether price can hold the $380.00 area; losing it cleanly would keep the focus on downside follow-through, while reclaiming the 20-day/100-day area would be an early sign the tape is stabilizing.
Tesla Shares Edge Lower
TSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 1.63% lower at $384.68, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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