Former Wedbush technology analyst Dan Ives said SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is becoming an indispensable artificial intelligence and data infrastructure company, calling Elon Musk’s rocket maker a foundational pillar of the "fourth industrial revolution" despite its volatile start as a publicly traded company.
Ives Urges Patience Through Early Volatility
Speaking with Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi on Thursday, Ives urged investors to judge SpaceX (NASDAQ) over several years rather than its first weeks after the June IPO. "If you go back to look at Amazon on the IPO, look at Facebook on the IPO," he said. "If you look at these with lockups and especially with this and a lot of the indexing over the course of months, there’s going to be a lot of volatility."
Ives, who left Wedbush this month to launch an investment-banking venture, acknowledged that "the valuation support is not there." Still, he said investors are asking what SpaceX could become over "the next 2, three, four, five years."
"And it’s hard to say fourth industrial revolution without SpaceX," Ives said.
He also compared the company’s execution challenge to those of other prominent technology listings. "When these companies go public, whether it’s what SK did last week, whether it’s SpaceX, whether it’s Anthropic, OpenAI… look, the golden path’s there… you have to execute and if you execute everything else works itself out," he said. "But that’s… the risk and reward for any of these."
Musk Merger Thesis Gains Fresh Support
Ives reiterated his view that SpaceX will eventually acquire Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), raising the probability to above 80%. "This is essentially Musk," he said. "A lot of it is really… betting on Musk."
Early SpaceX investor Chamath Palihapitiya revived that debate days earlier, saying there is "a very obvious industrial logic" to combining SpaceX and Tesla under one capital structure and balance sheet.
Dilution Concerns Challenge Tesla Deal Logic
Investor Gary Black pushed back, arguing Musk’s 82% voting control does not release SpaceX directors from fiduciary duties to all shareholders. At current valuations, Black said that an all-stock purchase of Tesla could dilute SpaceX holders by roughly 25%. "The math won’t pass muster," he wrote.
No transaction has been announced. Any combination would require board review, valuation work and likely regulatory scrutiny.
The debate comes before Tesla reports second-quarter results on July 22 after the closing bell on Wednesday. Wall Street expects earnings of 32 cents per share on revenue of $26.02 billion, according to Benzinga Pro.
Price Action: SpaceX stock is trading about 2.8% lower to it’s IPO price of $135 apiece.
According to Benzinga’s Edge Rankings, SPCX stock has shown a weaker price trend across Short, Medium and Long-term horizons.
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