Just weeks after becoming one of the hottest public listings in years, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) has gone from market darling to market skeptic.
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The stock has tumbled nearly 40% from its post-IPO high, erasing the gains that once sent shares soaring above $200 and slipping below its $135 IPO price. For many investors, the obvious question is whether the excitement has faded as quickly as it arrived.
Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, believes that’s the wrong question entirely.
Looking At The Wrong Time Horizon
For Tengler, the recent selloff says more about investor psychology than it does about SpaceX’s long-term prospects.
“I don’t invest for the next three or four weeks,” she said. “I invest with a three-, five-, or 10-year time period.”
That distinction matters because some of the market’s biggest winners looked far less convincing during their early years as public companies.
Rather than comparing SpaceX’s recent volatility with other high-profile IPOs that quickly fizzled, Tengler sees a different precedent — in Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).
“It’s got some parallels to the Meta IPO, but in our view it’s more analogous to Amazon,” she said.
The comparison isn’t about identical businesses. It’s about how transformational companies often force investors to endure years of volatility while the underlying business compounds in value.
The Price Isn’t the Thesis
SpaceX’s recent decline has reignited debates over whether the stock ran too far, too fast after its blockbuster debut.
Tengler isn’t dismissing those concerns. Instead, she argues they’re being asked too early.
For long-term investors, the more important question isn’t whether SpaceX should trade above or below its IPO price today. It’s whether the company’s businesses — from Starlink’s rapidly expanding satellite internet network to its dominance in commercial launches — continue to strengthen over the next decade.
That framework shifts the conversation away from technical levels and toward execution.
After all, Amazon spent years disappointing investors who focused on quarterly share-price swings while rewarding those who focused on the business it was building.
Volatility Is Part Of The Journey
Tengler acknowledged that the stock could remain volatile in the near term, particularly after its explosive run immediately following the IPO.
Rather than chasing momentum, she said periods of weakness are when long-term investors should begin paying closer attention.
“If it continues to decline, we will, in fact, step in,” Tengler said.
Her broader message is that SpaceX’s nearly 40% pullback doesn’t necessarily change the investment thesis—it simply changes the price at which investors can buy into it.
For traders, the recent selloff may be a warning sign.
For investors thinking in five or 10 years, Tengler suggests it may be something else entirely: the kind of volatility that has accompanied many of the market’s most transformative companies before.
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