Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has broken above $65,000 and is testing its previous high near $67,260. However, one crypto analyst says it is too early to declare that the bear-market bottom is in.

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Structure Turns Constructive

In a podcast on July 22, analyst Jason Pizzino said the market’s structure began improving in late June and early July. That is when Bitcoin recovered despite widespread negativity surrounding crypto markets and treasury companies.

BTC established a yearly low near $57,000 around July 1 before forming a multi-day bullish signal that suggested the rebound could last longer than earlier countertrend rallies.

July has frequently produced gains after a negative June, matching Bitcoin’s current rebound. August, however, has historically been one of the cryptocurrency’s weakest months.

Green August returns have been more common near the peak of bull markets than during bear-market or accumulation years.

September has produced more balanced results, while October often marks an important low for the S&P 500 during U.S. midterm-election years.

Pizzino said the combination of seasonality and macro uncertainty leaves room for Bitcoin to revisit lower levels, even potentially the $40,000 range, without necessarily invalidating the longer-term bottoming process.

Why The Bear Market Is Not Confirmed Over

Despite the improving setup, Bitcoin remains below several moving averages that have historically confirmed new bull-market cycles.

Pizzino highlighted the 200-day moving average, which previously rejected Bitcoin during its May rally. He expects BTC to consolidate while the declining moving average gradually approaches the market price.

The analyst identified approximately $71,000 as an important level because it represents a macro 50% retracement and could eventually align with the 200-day moving average.

Historical Bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2019 and 2023 featured prolonged accumulation below or around the 200-day average, followed by a high-volume breakout, a retest and another advance.

Pizzino said BTC may need to develop a similar structure before investors can confidently declare a new cycle.

"The structure is looking relatively healthy," he added. "But the macro indicators have not yet flipped bullish."

$83,000 Could Confirm A Major Trend Change

Pizzino identified a move above $83,000 as one of the stronger confirmations that Bitcoin’s cycle low is behind it.

That level would represent an overbalance in price compared with previous rallies during the downturn and could align with the declining 50-week moving average.

BTC’s 50-week moving average currently sits closer to $86,000, although it could move lower as the market consolidates.

In previous cycles, a sustained move above that indicator was followed by higher prices, aside from brief disruptions such as the pandemic-driven crash in 2020.

The 200-week moving average could provide an additional, later confirmation of a new bull-market phase.

Pizzino said investors seeking greater certainty must accept that confirmation typically comes several months after the exact price bottom.

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