Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) has become one of 2026’s most dramatic turnaround trades. Shares have nearly tripled as investors bet on stronger execution, AI demand and foundry progress.
Intel’s stock rally leaves little room for merely decent second quarter results.
- INTC stock is moving ahead of earnings. See the chart and price action here.
INTC Rally Raises the Earnings Bar
Intel’s second-quarter earnings arrive after Thursday’s close, and Wall Street expects revenue of $14.4 billion, up from $12.86 billion a year earlier. Analysts project earnings of 19 cents per share, versus a 10-cent loss last year, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The estimates imply meaningful progress, but the stock already reflects a much stronger recovery.
Intel’s recent execution supports part of the optimism. The chipmaker has topped revenue estimates for seven straight quarters and has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters and seven of the past ten.
What to Watch
Another beat may be required to defend Intel stock’s current valuation.
The bigger test will come from guidance and margins. Traders need evidence that stronger demand can translate into durable profit growth.
Management’s comments on data center demand, foundry economics and manufacturing yields could matter more than headline revenue. Any sign of higher costs or slower growth could pressure shares quickly.
Artificial intelligence remains central to Intel’s bull case. Investors will watch for demand across server processors and enterprise infrastructure.
Intel also expanded its partnership with Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google Cloud to support its enterprise AI transformation. New partnerships could strengthen the backlog, but management must show a path toward monetization.
Cost reductions add another complication. Intel has cut jobs within its Data Center and AI group. The move may improve efficiency, yet it could raise questions about underlying demand. Analysts could press management on whether the cuts reflect discipline or weaker growth expectations.
Thursday’s report, therefore, carries an unusually high bar. A clean beat, stronger margins and confident guidance could extend Intel’s rally, while mixed results may expose the gap between turnaround enthusiasm and current fundamentals.
After a near-tripling, Intel must prove the story has moved beyond hope.
INTC Stock Price Activity: Intel stock was down 3.12% at $99.42 at the time of publication Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro.
Over the past month, INTC has declined about 21.9% versus a 0.6% rise in the S&P 500 and is up roughly 168% year-to-date compared to the index’s 7.7% gain.
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