Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) launched a new set of investor metrics as MSTR broke weekly support at $100, with crypto analyst Ali Martinez warning the breakdown could trigger a move to $30.
What Is The Net Bitcoin Per Share Metric And Why Does It Matter?
Strategy’s Head of Investor Relations Chaitanya Jain walked through the updates in a video posted to X, saying the old Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) per share figure no longer captures the full picture as the company’s preferred equity and digital credit obligations have grown larger on the balance sheet.
Old Metric vs New Metric
- Old: Total Bitcoin holdings divided by shares outstanding — did not account for senior claims ahead of common shareholders.
- New (Net Bitcoin Per Share): Total Bitcoin holdings minus preferred equity and out-of-the-money convertible debt, divided by fully diluted shares. The result is what common shareholders actually own after all debt obligations are stripped out.
Meanwhile, Net Bitcoin per share currently sits at 143,000 SATs, up from 44,000 SATs at the end of 2020, a 23% CAGR.
In dollar terms that is $95 per share today versus $13 in 2020, a 43% CAGR against Bitcoin’s own 16% CAGR over the same period.
What Are The New Credit Metrics Telling Investors?
Strategy also raised its amplification ratio to 1.52, meaning its net Bitcoin per share moves about 1.52% for every 1% move in Bitcoin.
The ratio magnifies gains when Bitcoin rises and deepens losses when it falls.
Two new credit metrics offer investors a clearer view of the downside risk. The hurdle rate stands at 10.8%, meaning Bitcoin must deliver that annual return for Strategy shares to outperform Bitcoin after accounting for preferred dividends and debt costs.
The flow rate stands at negative 11%, meaning Bitcoin could fall 11% annually for the next six years before Strategy’s reserves could no longer cover its debt and preferred equity obligations.
Why Is Ali Charts Warning Of A Move To $30?
Crypto analyst Ali Charts flagged on X that MSTR breaking weekly support at $100 opens the door to a move toward $30, a level that would represent roughly 70% downside from current prices.
MSTR trades at $94.80, sitting just 0.6% above its 20-day SMA at $94.57. The broader structure stays firmly bearish, with the stock 22.3% below its 50-day SMA at $122.43 and 42.3% below its 200-day SMA at $164.78.
The death cross formed in October 2025 keeps the longer-term trend pointed down.
MACD sits above its signal line with a positive histogram, pointing to easing downside pressure in the near term even as the bigger picture stays bearish.
Key levels for MSTR:
| Level | Price | Role |
| Resistance | $105 | Level where rebounds have stalled |
| Current Price | $94.80 | Just 0.6% above 20-day SMA — holding by a margin |
| Support | $90 | Post-selloff stabilization zone |
| Ali Charts Target | $30 | ~70% downside if weekly breakdown accelerates |
Photo via Shutterstock
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