Scott Galloway says the analyst behind Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is in the wrong line of work.
“That person should be writing romantic comedies where people bump into each other at the grocery store and in aisle eight decide they’re in love,” the NYU professor said on the latest episode of the Prof G Markets podcast.
The barb lands at an awkward moment for the space giant, which is trading this morning near $113, roughly 16% below its $135 IPO price and nearly 50% off its intraday high of $225.64.
The AI Premium Behind the $300 Call
The target belongs to Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, whose model reportedly assumes revenue grows from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion by 2030, driven largely by SpaceX’s data center ambitions and compute contracts with clients including Anthropic and Google.
More than half the valuation reportedly rests on AI rather than rockets. Goldman Sachs sits at $205, while Raymond James analyst Brian Sigual carries a Street-high $800 target.
Galloway’s co-host Ed Elson singled out that last one. “He thinks the company is worth $10.4 trillion. He should really be writing the fiction,” Elson said.
Galloway Sees Echoes of WeWork
Galloway compared the situation to WeWork’s failed 2019 IPO, when underwriters signed off on a prospectus that measured profitability using “community adjusted EBITDA,” a metric that excluded the company’s real estate costs.
“I called it EBITDA before everything else,” said Galloway, whose viral takedown of that filing became one of his signature calls.
“The institutions we used to trust to do this, you cannot trust,” Galloway added, a point sharpened by the fact that SpaceX’s own IPO underwriters, reportedly including Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup, all carry buy ratings on the stock.
Tesla didn’t escape either.
Galloway called the EV maker “a meme stock,” noting Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are down roughly 15% in a week.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders are not pricing in a rebound this month.
They give SpaceX a 21% chance of closing July above $120 and 2% odds of finishing above $140. The most likely outcome, at 60%, is a close above $110.
A separate Polymarket contract puts 16% odds on Tesla and SpaceX announcing a merger by December 31. That market has drawn nearly $880,000 in volume.
SpaceX reports its first public earnings on August 4, with a roughly 911-million-share lockup tranche set to unlock two trading days later, on August 6.
Adam Jonas himself has noted many investors expect the stock to trade toward $100 as lockups expire.
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