Prominent crypto analyst Kevin Capital says he has begun dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), even as his long-term roadmap points to a possible decline down to $44,000.

Why It’s Time To Buy

In a podcast on July 27, Kevin argued Bitcoin is approaching a bear-market bottom from both a price and timing perspective, making gradual accumulation more important than identifying the exact lowest trade.

He said Bitcoin has entered the July-through-October window in which he expects the current bear market to bottom.

That period has also marked the beginning of his planned dollar-cost averaging strategy, with purchases spread across major support levels rather than concentrated at a single price.

"I still believe that we should go down to the $56,000-to-$44,000 range," he said. "However, it doesn’t matter to me. I’m still buying Bitcoin at these levels, and I will buy more Bitcoin if we go to those levels."

Kev Capital said BTC has now spent around 10 months in a bear-market drawdown, compared with the 12-to-14-month declines commonly seen in previous crypto cycles.

Why He Is Buying Before The Bottom

Kevin cautioned that investors who wait for an exact price target risk missing the broader recovery.

He pointed to the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin initially fell into the $17,000-to-$19,000 range before declining to approximately $15,500 during the FTX collapse.

Investors who accumulated during the summer still captured most of the subsequent upside, he said, even though they did not buy the precise bottom.

"Waiting for that, slowly waiting for that, is dangerous," Kev Capital said.

Indicators Show Bearish Momentum Is Slowing

Bitcoin remains in a technical downtrend, the analyst cautioned.

It is yet to reclaim its daily moving averages or the two-day 200 EMA and SMA, while monthly momentum indicators continue to reset.

Still, several higher-time-frame indicators are beginning to improve.

Whale money flow has shown signs of accumulation on the weekly chart, although the monthly indicator has not yet completed a bullish reversal.

A sustained monthly reversal would provide stronger confirmation that large investors are accumulating aggressively.

Kevin plans to continue increasing his allocation as Bitcoin reaches major support levels and momentum conditions improve.

"Analysis is not for pinpointing perfect entries," he said. "It’s for limiting your downside risk and giving your upside potential as much benefit as possible."

He floated a long-term target between $200,000 and $300,000, while acknowledging that predicting the exact peak remains difficult.

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