Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5 p.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company a 81% chance of beating estimates, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Vlad Tenev and his team will say.
Analysts expect the brokerage to report quarterly earnings of 41 cents per share, versus 42 cents in the year-ago period, on revenue of about $1.21 billion.
What Kalshi Predicts Tenev Will Say
“Credit Card” and “Retirement” top the board at 97% and 96%. The Robinhood Gold Card, which pays a flat 3% cashback and requires the $5-a-month Gold tier, passed 800,000 funded customers in Q1.
Gold subscribers hit 4.3 million, up 36% year-over-year. Robinhood Retirement AUC grew 90% to $27.4 billion.
“Robinhood Chain” (95%) and “Tokenization” (84%) track Robinhood’s new Arbitrum Layer-2, launched July 1 to settle tokenized stocks across 120 countries.
“Acquisition” trades at 93%. The MIAXdx deal, closed in January with Susquehanna, gave Robinhood its own CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange.
Since then the company has picked up an Indonesian brokerage, WonderFi in Canada, and TradePMR for advisors.
“Social” at 91% covers Robinhood Social, the in-app trading feed that entered beta in March, where every post links to a verified trade and tickers open a ticket in one tap.
“SIG / Susquehanna” is at 83%. Susquehanna is a liquidity provider on Rothera, the CFTC-licensed exchange Robinhood holds a stake in, which gives it an alternative to routing event contracts through Kalshi.
“Perpetual” at 78% and “UK” at 70% track Robinhood’s July product day, when the company expanded European perps into commodities, ETFs and FX at up to 10x leverage, and confirmed a crypto launch in Britain.
“SpaceX” trades at 69%. Robinhood filled share requests for over 855,000 customers in Elon Musk’s aerospace IPO in June, the biggest listing ever.
“Convertible” sits at 65% after the company raised $2.2 billion in zero-coupon notes due 2029 in late June.
What Kalshi Predicts Tenev Will Skip
“Bitcoin” trades at 51%. Crypto transaction revenue fell 47% in Q1 as spot volumes cooled, and management is pivoting the story to Robinhood Chain and tokenized real-world assets.
“Concierge” trades at 33%. The invitation-only wealth service, which bundles tax filing and estate planning for customers with $1 million in assets, is still a pilot, and management may not want to talk about it until it’s a real product.
“Kalshi” trades at 12%, the lowest on the board. Robinhood drove over half of Kalshi’s volume last year, but routing contracts to affiliated exchange Rothera turns Kalshi from a partner into a competitor.
Reading the Board
Options traders are pricing in about a 10.8% move, and the beat is largely priced in.
The harder question is whether Tenev can explain why a company shipping this much product is down 15% on the year.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Image: Shutterstock
Login to comment